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New research indicates that identifying children as having high cognitive ability at a young age is often an unreliable predictor of their future intellectual performance. The study found that intelligence scores fluctuate significantly during childhood and adolescence, suggesting that stable patterns of cognitive ability typically do not emerge until approximately age 12. These findings were published in the journal Intelligence & Cognitive Abilities.
The study was conducted by Angel Blanch, Sergio Escorial, and Roberto Colom. These researchers are professors affiliated with the Universitat de Lleida, the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, and the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. They sought to address a persistent question regarding the stability of human intelligence during the first two decades of life.
Previous scientific data indicates that general cognitive ability becomes highly stable as individuals reach adulthood. But stability values tend to be much lower during early childhood.
The researchers aimed to determine which specific factors distinguish children who maintain early high scores from those whose scores decline over time. They also investigated whether environmental factors or genetic predispositions play a larger role in these developmental shifts.
“We sought to shed light on the issue of whether it is reliable to identify high cognitive ability children at premature stages in development. Given that measures show relatively low reliability at early ages, we expected remarkable cognitive/intellectual changes across childhood and early adolescence,” the researchers told PsyPost.
For their study, the researchers analyzed data from the Twins Early Development Study. This is a large longitudinal project based in the United Kingdom that tracks the development of twins from birth through early adulthood. From the larger cohort, the researchers selected a dataset comprising 11,119 individuals to observe trajectories of cognitive development.
The researchers focused on two specific groups based on standardized test scores obtained at age 7. The first group consisted of 3,958 individuals with normative ability scores ranging between 99 and 115. The second group included 1,580 individuals with high ability scores exceeding 115.
The analysis utilized general cognitive ability scores that were collected at ages 4, 7, 12, 16, and 21. By using data points spanning 17 years, the team could observe long-term trajectories. They employed statistical techniques known as latent curve models. This method allowed them to estimate both the starting point of intelligence scores and the rate of change as the children aged.
In addition to intelligence scores, the researchers examined potential predictors of change. These included measures of the home environment and behavioral problems, which were assessed at multiple time points. The researchers also incorporated time-invariant predictors such as socioeconomic status and school engagement.
The study also included polygenic scores in the analysis. These are genetic indicators derived from DNA analysis that estimate an individual’s genetic predisposition for certain traits. By including both environmental and genetic variables, the authors hoped to disentangle the influences of nature and nurture.
The analysis revealed substantial fluctuations in intelligence scores as the children aged. A majority of the participants did not maintain their relative rank within the distribution of scores. For children classified in the high ability group at age 7, only 16 percent maintained their high scores by age 16.
Movement occurred in the normative group as well, though it was less frequent. Approximately 8 percent of children with average scores at age 7 moved into the high ability range by age 16. The data indicates that retaining a high classification is more likely than achieving one from an average starting point, yet stability remains low for both groups during these years.
The researchers found that personal factors played a larger role than situational ones in predicting these changes. Polygenic scores and socioeconomic status consistently predicted cognitive trajectories. Children with higher genetic predispositions for intelligence tended to have more positive rates of change as they grew older.
This pattern aligns with a concept in behavioral genetics known as the Wilson effect. This effect describes how the influence of genetics on cognitive ability tends to increase with age, while the influence of the shared environment decreases.
Conversely, environmental factors such as home chaos or life events showed weak associations with cognitive changes in the high ability group. High ability children appeared largely unaffected by variations in their home environment or behavioral problems. They seemed to possess a level of resilience against situational stressors regarding their cognitive development.
“Polygenic scores (genetic potential) instead of situational factors such as home and school environments (behavior problems, home chaos, life events, etc.) predict the identified cognitive ability changes as children age,” the researchers told PsyPost. “This pattern is especially true for high cognitive ability children.”
For the normative group, however, the results were slightly different. Negative life events and behavioral problems were associated with decreases in cognitive scores for these children. This suggests that children with average cognitive ability may be more sensitive to environmental instability than their high-ability peers.
School engagement also emerged as a significant predictor. Higher levels of engagement at age 16 were associated with increases in general cognitive ability. This relationship held true for both the normative and high ability groups.
The researchers observed that the correlation between intelligence scores and the rate of change increased as the participants aged. At age 7, a child’s score had little relation to how much their score would change in the future. By age 21, the relationship between a person’s score and their developmental trajectory was much stronger.
These findings have practical implications for educational policy and the identification of gifted children. The high mobility of cognitive scores suggests that many children labeled as such will not maintain that status.
“Premature identification of high cognitive ability children is not warranted,” the researchers explained. “Planned follow-ups are required because we found that most children are intellectually mobile as they age. Of those scoring one standard deviation above the mean at age 7, only a tiny minority preserve their high ability marks afterwards.”
There are limitations to this study that should be noted. The dataset did not include neuroimaging data, such as MRI scans. This means the researchers could not directly observe the structural brain changes that accompany these shifts in cognitive ability.
“The lack of brain data in the TEDS dataset precludes the analysis of the relationship between the identified cognitive ability changes and the brain changes we already know occur until cognitive maturity is achieved (16 yrs. on average),” the researchers noted. “Connecting genetic potential, brain development, and cognitive ability is crucial for a better understanding of the identified changes.”
Future research in this area aims to incorporate biological data. The researchers express a desire to obtain brain scans of individuals who maintained their high cognitive scores versus those who did not. Investigating structural and functional brain differences could provide a biological explanation for the cognitive mobility observed in this study.
“It would be great to obtain brain data of the individuals showing intellectual precocity that kept their high cognitive marks and those who lost their high scores,” the researchers said. “Do the former show better structural and functional brain features than the latter?”
“Available neuroscientific research findings allow stating predictions regarding potential differences at the brain level between these two cognitive ability profiles. We think getting MRI scans of these folks is highly worthwhile to enhance our current knowledge.”
The study, “Developmental Changes in High Cognitive Ability Children: The Role of Nature and Nurture,” was authored by Angel Blanch, Sergio Escorial, and Roberto Colom.
