When it comes to predicting conspiracy beliefs, much of the literature focuses on political partisanship. But new research published in American Politics Research, suggests that there are other more important factors. The national study revealed that anti-social personality traits, anti-establishment orientations, and support for Trump were stronger predictors of conspiracy beliefs than left-right orientations.
Conspiracy theories and misinformation continue to circulate surrounding COVID-19, QAnon, and the 2020 U.S. Election. Studies suggest that these beliefs have unfavorable outcomes — for example, beliefs in election fraud and QAnon have been tied to criminal activity. When it comes to unearthing the predictors of these beliefs, study author Joseph E. Uscinski and his colleagues say that political scientists have neglected to look beyond political partisanship.
“During the Trump years, several conspiracy theories became politically relevant and highly salient,” said Uscinski, a professor of political science at the University of Miami. “We wanted to investigate the factors that were associated with beliefs in those conspiracy theories. Further, we were very interested in how various personality traits were associated with these various conspiracy theory beliefs.”
While much research has focused on political orientation, Uscinski and his team proposed that partisanship is not enough to explain belief in conspiracy theories. For example, although Republicans may be more likely to believe in QAnon, the majority of them do not.
The researchers aimed to test additional predictors that might be associated with beliefs in recent conspiracy theories. Among other factors, they considered the influence of anti-social personality traits and a political trait that is independent of partisanship — an anti-establishment worldview.
Between July and August 2021, the researchers surveyed 2,065 U.S. adults. In addition to sociodemographic measures, the questionnaires included 17 items assessing belief in COVID-19 misinformation, COVID-19 conspiracy theories, QAnon conspiracy theories, and voter fraud conspiracy theories.
The surveys also included measures of political orientation, support for Donald Trump, propensity toward interpersonal conflict, and the Dark traits of narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism. Finally, the surveys assessed anti-establishment orientations — “a deep-seated antagonism toward and suspicion of the political establishment, including mainstream parties, politicians, and media.”
The results revealed that anti-establishment orientations, dark personality traits (including propensity toward interpersonal conflict), and support for Trump were strongly related to beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation about the pandemic, election fraud, and QAnon. While political orientation was also related to conspiracy theory beliefs, these associations were weaker and less consistent.
While partisanship may still be a worthwhile predictor, the findings help explain which particular Republicans or Democrats are more likely to endorse certain conspiracy beliefs and when these beliefs might be endorsed regardless of political views.
The authors suggest that anti-social personality traits can be thought of as traits that are common among people who are attracted to conspiracy theories, while politics might be the adding factor that encourages particular beliefs and actions. “Specifically”, the researchers say, “the public endorsement of conspiracy theories and misinformation by prominent trusted leaders may connect anti-social, conflictual people to those ideas, subsequently motivating them to act.” This contention is supported by the finding that support for Trump was strongly related to conspiracy beliefs.
“There is more to believing politicized conspiracy theories than just partisanship or left-right ideology. People’s personality factors matter quite a bit, and seem to determine to some extent which conspiracy theories they will believe in,” Uscinski told PsyPost.
Uscinski and his colleagues say that their findings may have implications for efforts to prevent or correct the studied conspiracy beliefs. Past evidence has suggested that many people are resistant to letting go of their conspiracy beliefs. The current findings suggest that this may have to do with anti-social and conflictual personalities that make some people more difficult to persuade. Conspiracy beliefs may stem from more than just a lack of understanding or education, requiring more sophisticated strategies for their prevention.
“Some conspiracy theories appeal to people who have anti-social and nonnormative traits and who exhibit anti-social behaviors. This might explain why it is so difficult to ‘correct’ some people’s conspiracy theory beliefs: those people are not open to correction or negotiation,” Uscinski said.
Among limitations, the authors note that their study took place during a unique time period and focused on conspiracy beliefs surrounding atypical events (i.e., the 2020 U.S. election and the COVID-19 pandemic) and their findings may not generalize beyond this context.
The study, “How Anti-Social Personality Traits and Anti-Establishment Views Promote Beliefs in Election Fraud, QAnon, and COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation”, was authored by Adam Enders, Casey Klofstad, Justin Stoler, and Joseph E. Uscinski.
