Support for former president Donald Trump serves as a crucial intervening variable in the public’s rejection of scientific consensus on climate change and COVID-19 vaccination, according to new research published in PLOS One. Analyzing responses from over a thousand participants, the study highlights how Trumpism transcends other demographic factors in influencing attitudes towards these key scientific issues.
The study builds on a wealth of previous research examining the social and political dimensions of science acceptance and rejection. Over the years, scientists have been concerned about the politicization of science, where beliefs about climate change and public health measures, such as vaccinations, seem influenced more by political leanings than scientific evidence.
This trend has been especially pronounced in the United States, where political affiliation has become a powerful predictor of one’s stance on scientific issues. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing climate crises, understanding these patterns has become more critical than ever.
“As an environmental sociologist, I’ve long been fascinated by human/environment interactions. One strand of my research explores the connections or disconnects between the reality and public perceptions of environmental problems,” said study author Lawrence Hamilton, a professor of sociology and senior fellow in the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire.
“Science can be a messenger, as with observations about climate change or pandemics. But scientific messages also get filtered through public perceptions, and perhaps rejected if they seem to conflict with identity-based beliefs. Analyzing many surveys over the past fifteen years, I’ve learned that socio-political identity is often the elephant in the room, predicting people’s views on environment, science and so many other things. And the linkages between general identity and specific views are influenced externally by economic, media and partisan elites. It’s hard to do meaningful research without meeting these realities head on.
“Some decades back, clean air and water were consensus American values, and strong legislation could pass with bipartisan support. Sadly, that time has gone by; now opinions about environmental protection are nearly a proxy for political identity. Identity-based divisions are particularly acute regarding climate change and COVID-19. The rapid spread of politicized opposition to COVID mitigation in 2020 partly tracked statements by then-president Donald Trump. His influence on pandemic perceptions highlights another issue as well — the shifting content of socio-political identity, as familiar categories of party and ideology take on new meanings.”
For his study, Hamilton analyzed data from a survey conducted during the summer and early fall of 2021. Named the Polar, Environment, and Science survey (POLES 2021), it was designed to be nationally representative, encompassing a wide range of demographic indicators, including age, gender, race, education, and political party. The survey successfully garnered 1,134 valid completions.
Participants were asked about their views on climate change, COVID-19 vaccination, and former President Trump. The survey also included questions on various conspiracy theories. These seemingly unrelated conspiracy beliefs were included to assess a broader inclination towards rejecting established knowledge and allowed Hamilton to explore the broader landscape of science rejection beyond just politically charged topics.
As expected, conservatives, Republicans, white Americans, and evangelicals were significantly more likely to approve of Trump. Trump support was also higher among Republicans who predominantly associated with friends from the same political party. Additionally, individuals who believed in unpolitical conspiracy theories, such as the moon landing being faked or the Earth being flat, also tended to support Trump more strongly.
Central to the study’s findings was the pivotal role of support for Trump in shaping public attitudes towards science. Trump support acted as a significant predictor of science rejection, independently of ideology, race, or religion. This influence of Trumpism was evident in attitudes towards both climate change and COVID-19 vaccination. But Trumpism was not just an independent predictor of science rejection; it also enhanced the effects of other background factors on science rejection.
“Trumpism exacerbates the problem of science rejection,” Hamilton told PsyPost. “Unfortunately, there are deadly consequences to having a large fraction of the US public dismiss expertise regarding hard realities such as climate change and COVID. Earlier studies have shown parallel divisions across many other fields — including the disproportionately conservative rejection of central propositions in biology, geology and astronomy; and conservatives’ lower trust in scientists regarding nuclear power, genetically modified organisms, environmental protection, renewable energy and forest management, as well as epidemiology and vaccination long before COVID.”
Notably, while being white or an evangelical Christian did not directly lead to science rejection, these identities contributed to such attitudes indirectly, through their association with Trump support. Conspiracy beliefs directly increased the likelihood of vaccine rejection. On the other hand, their effect on climate change rejection was more indirect, mainly exerted through the influence of Trumpism. In other words, those who endorsed conspiracy beliefs were more likely to support Trump, which in turn was associated with climate change rejection.
“There are differences in how individual characteristics such as age, gender, race, income, religion, education, ideology, political party and conspiracism affect climate and COVID views, but the common denominator of Trumpism is impressive,” Hamilton said. “A simple, seemingly nonpolitical conspiracism indicator — openness to flat Earth or Moon landing conspiracy beliefs — predicts Trump approval and to a lesser degree COVID vaccine rejection, but not climate change rejection.”
While these findings are insightful, there are some limitations. The data, being specific to the U.S. and collected during a particular period, might not fully capture the evolving dynamics of public opinion or the political contexts of other countries. The changing nature of phenomena such as climate change skepticism, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and Trump support also suggests the need for continuous research to track these shifts.
“Every survey is a snapshot in time,” Hamilton explained. “The main data for this paper are from 2021, when Trump was out of power but still very much in view. A few years later, the conspiratorial aspects of Trumpism are perhaps even more salient. Where will he take his followers in the near future, and what might their movement become after Trump?”
“On newer surveys, conducted since this paper was written, I am seeing Trumpism-correlated science rejection across a range of seemingly unpoliticized topics, from aquaculture to rabies vaccination for dogs. It feels as if the political, conspiratorial arguments against climate scientists and epidemiologists ‘bleed over’ into attitudes on other domains that respondents really haven’t thought much about, and where political elites have said nothing. These trends hold importance for us all.”
The study, “Trumpism, climate and COVID: Social bases of the new science rejection“, was published January 10, 2024.