People who believe in conspiracy theories display a cognitive bias — known as the jumping-to-conclusions bias — that is commonly observed in schizophrenia patients, according to new research published in Frontiers in Psychology. The study provides new insights into the cognitive underpinnings of belief in conspiracy theories.
“I am a certified cognitive behavioral therapist and normally my scientific work is on CBT and cognitive biases (reasoning biases, theory of mind) in psychosis,” said study author Stephanie Mehl, a professor at the Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences and a clinical psychologist at Philipps University of Marburg.
During a workshop on psychosis, postgraduate students asked Mehl about the difference between those with psychosis and those who believed in conspiracy theories.
“One main difference is that people who believe in conspiracy theories think of themselves as a large group who knows more of the world than the rest of us, the average population, whereas patients with psychosis have their delusions of personal persecution and are quite alone with their theories,” Mehl explained.
But Mehl and her PhD student Nico Pytlik wanted to better understand whether the cognitive biases associated with psychosis were also present in those who believed in conspiracy theories. “One such cognitive bias is the tendency of patients with psychosis to decide very quickly about facts without gathering much information,” Mehl said.
In the study, the researchers asked 519 participants how much they believed in 20 different conspiracy theories, such as the belief that airplane condensation trails are secret “chemtrail” experiments and that the World Trade Center was blown up from inside.
Next, the participants completed a measure of their preference for an analytical thinking style and their preference for an intuitive thinking style. The participants then completed the fish task, an assessment of jumping to conclusions behavior.
In the task, participants are shown pictures of two different lakes. They are told that “Lake A has 60% white fish, and 40% black fish. Lake B, on the other hand, has 40% white fish, and 60% black fish.” The participants are then shown pictures of fish, one at a time, that were caught from one of these lakes.
After viewing each picture, the participants are given the option of seeing another picture or deciding whether they think all the pictured fish were caught from Lake A or Lake B.
The researchers found that participants who asked to see fewer pictures before making their decision tended to have stronger conspiracy beliefs. In other words, those who believed in conspiracy theories showed a tendency to jump to conclusions rather than seek out additional information.
Those with a jumping-to-conclusions bias also showed a stronger preference for an intuitive thinking style, which in turn was associated with conspiracy beliefs.
“Especially in distressing highly emotional situations (e.g. in a pandemic), we are prone to cognitive biases such as the jumping-to-conclusions bias,” “Thus, it is important to search for information that is not in line with our biases and be highly careful with regard to influences, especially on social media, where we are prone to keep in contact only with persons who share our beliefs,” Mehl told PsyPost.
“It is important to have friends (online and offline) who ‘give us contra’ and challenge our conclusions. We should consider scientific facts as often as possible in order to test our beliefs and inform us.”
Mehl added that “it is important not to give up on your friends or relatives who suffer from conspiracy beliefs. Stay in close contact — maybe do not discuss certain topics, but stay in contact with them in case they come back, because it is sometimes hard to tell others that we were wrong.”
Previous research has linked facets of schizotypy to belief in conspiracy theories. But Mehl and colleagues caution that “believing in conspiracy theories per se is not a mental disorder.”
“Real political conspiracies, such as the Iran Contra Affair or the Watergate Scandal recurred throughout history and it would not have been possible to uncover them without a certain degree of mistrust of official institutions and narratives,” the researchers wrote in their study. “On the other hand, [conspiracy beliefs are] accompanied by a wide range of negative medical or societal effects such as a reduced willingness to vaccinate or to combat climate change and decreased political participation.”
The study, “Thinking Preferences and Conspiracy Belief: Intuitive Thinking and the Jumping to Conclusions-Bias as a Basis for the Belief in Conspiracy Theories“, was authored by Nico Pytlik, Daniel Soll and Stephanie Mehl.
