A new study has revealed that a specific group of Republicans, known as MAGA Republicans, are more likely than other groups to endorse political violence. The findings, published in PLOS One, indicate that this group, making up approximately 15% of the US adult population, showed distinct beliefs on race and democracy, differing significantly from other Republican factions and non-Republicans.
In recent years, the United States has witnessed a surge in political tensions, culminating in events like the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. This has prompted a growing concern among experts and researchers about the potential for widespread political violence. Such incidents have not only immediate physical repercussions but also long-term societal and public health consequences.
To address this concern, researchers embarked on a study to better understand the attitudes towards political violence among different political factions, with a particular focus on MAGA Republicans – a term often associated with supporters of former President Donald Trump who strongly deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results.
“We do research on firearm violence and started work on political violence after noticing anomalies in gun purchasing trends, first documented here. As public health researchers, we’re interested in variation in risk and in identifying groups at high risk to help guide prevention efforts,” said study author Garen J. Wintemute, the Baker–Teret Chair in Violence Prevention and Distinguished Professor of Emergency Medicine at the University of California, Davis
The survey was conducted online between May 13 and June 2, 2022, and was administered by the survey research firm Ipsos. It involved 8,620 participants, drawn from Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel. This panel is a large, nationally representative group of US adults. Participants were selected using a probability-based method to ensure a sample representative of the US population.
Key measures in the survey included questions about democracy, American society, race and ethnicity, and attitudes towards both non-political and political violence. Participants were asked their views on the use of violence in various scenarios, including self-defense, protection of democracy, and in response to perceived societal changes. The study also probed into beliefs associated with the QAnon conspiracy theory and ‘great replacement’ thinking.
The researchers divided respondents into groups based on their political affiliation: MAGA Republicans, strong Republicans, other Republicans, and non-Republicans. MAGA Republicans were defined specifically as those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and strongly disagreed with the legitimacy of the 2020 election results.
In terms of demographics, MAGA Republicans diverged from other Republican groups in several ways. They were more likely to be female and less likely to have a bachelor’s or postgraduate degree or a household income exceeding $150,000. This profile suggests a unique demographic makeup of this political faction.
One of the survey’s most striking revelations concerns attitudes towards democracy and the use of violence. A substantial 90% of MAGA Republicans perceived a serious threat to American democracy, a perception considerably higher than that of strong Republicans (74.4%), other Republicans (61.7%), and non-Republicans (70.1%).
Furthermore, 31% of MAGA Republicans held the belief that having a strong leader is more important than maintaining a democracy, again surpassing the percentages in strong Republicans (17.8%), other Republicans (17.0%), and non-Republicans (15.2%). The endorsement of armed citizens patrolling polling places was also notably higher among MAGA Republicans (19.2%) compared to the other groups.
The survey also probed beliefs about race and the ‘great replacement’ theory. Only 6.5% of MAGA Republicans agreed strongly or very strongly that white people have societal advantages over Black people, a stark contrast to the 62.6% of non-Republicans who held this view. Additionally, over half of MAGA Republicans (51.0%) strongly or very strongly believed in the ‘great replacement’ theory, the belief that native-born white Americans are being replaced by immigrants. This belief was far less prevalent among strong Republicans (23.1%), other Republicans (14.4%), and non-Republicans (7.0%).
Another area of focus was the QAnon conspiracy theory. Here, 26.7% of MAGA Republicans strongly or very strongly believed that US institutions are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles, a belief significantly less prevalent among strong Republicans (5.4%), other Republicans (6.5%), and non-Republicans (5.6%). Similarly, 29.6% of MAGA Republicans strongly or very strongly believed in the imminent arrival of a storm that would restore the rightful leaders, a view not as widely shared by other groups.
“The study’s findings suggest that MAGA Republicans, as defined, are a distinct minority — more likely than other Republicans to endorse racist and delusional beliefs, sometimes by very wide margins,” the researchers wrote.
Regarding political violence, while support for it in general was relatively low across all groups, MAGA Republicans showed a slightly higher inclination (3.3%) compared to strong Republicans (2.5%), other Republicans (1.1%), and non-Republicans (2.5%). When considering violence to advance specific political objectives, 58.2% of MAGA Republicans believed it was justified, a stark contrast to the percentages seen in strong Republicans (38.3%), other Republicans (31.5%), and non-Republicans (25.1%).
Despite these strong beliefs about the justification of political violence, the survey found that personal willingness to engage in such violence was low across all groups, including MAGA Republicans. This suggests a discrepancy between the endorsement of political violence as a concept and the willingness to participate in it personally.
“As compared with other Republicans (and with non-Republicans), MAGA Republicans (defined as Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and deny the results of that election) were much more likely to endorse racist and pro-violence statements and much more supportive of political violence,” Wintemute told PsyPost. “They were not more willing than others to engage in such violence themselves. There is good news in the lack of willingness to engage in violence, but it comes with a caveat: support for violence by the unwilling may enable the willing to proceed.”
But the study, like all research, includes some limitations. The results rely on self-reporting, which could be subject to under-reporting, especially on sensitive topics like personal willingness to engage in violence.
Looking ahead, the study’s findings point to the need for more in-depth research to understand the factors that lead to support for political violence. This is crucial for developing targeted interventions to prevent the transition from support for violence to active participation. With the growing concern over political divisions and potential violence in the US, studies like this are essential in providing insights into the beliefs and attitudes that underpin these societal challenges. The clear distinction in beliefs and attitudes towards violence and democracy among MAGA Republicans, as revealed by this survey, offers a starting point for deeper analysis and intervention strategies aimed at preserving democratic values and preventing political violence.
The study, “MAGA Republicans’ views of American democracy and society and support for political violence in the United States: Findings from a nationwide population-representative survey“, was authored by Garen J. Wintemute, Sonia L. Robinson, Elizabeth A. Tomsich, and Daniel J. Tancredi.
