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In an era marked by rapid social and political change, a new study provides insights into why the American public’s stance on abortion has remained “deceptively” consistent. The findings, published in Political Research Quarterly, reveal how shifts among key demographic, religious, and partisan groups have balanced each other out.
The motivation behind the study stemmed from a curiosity about why, against a backdrop of significant societal change, opinions on abortion have scarcely wavered. Researchers were intrigued by the contrast between the stable attitudes toward abortion and the dramatic shifts in public opinion on other social issues.
“My colleagues and I are interested in understanding the attitudes of Americans about the issue of abortion for a few reasons. One is that despite all the changes our political system has undergone over the past half century including a dramatic partisan polarization attitudes on abortion from Roe to Dobbs (1973-2022) have been strikingly consistent,” said study author Laurel Elder, a professor and chair of political science at Hartwick College.
“This is unusual! Attitudes on other social issues such as legalization of marijuana and LGBTQ+ rights have shifted dramatically over this same time period in a decidedly liberal direction. Also, we wanted to develop a really well grounded understanding of public opinion on abortion prior to the 2022 Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and led more than a dozen states to ban abortion.”
For their study, the researchers analyzed data from the General Social Survey (GSS), a nationally representative survey that has been conducted annually or biannually since the 1970s. This rich dataset allowed the them to explore public opinion using detailed measures of abortion attitudes. The survey asked respondents about their support for legal abortion under seven specific conditions, providing a nuanced view of public sentiment.
Analyzing responses from thousands of participants over several decades, the researchers constructed a comprehensive picture of how abortion attitudes have evolved, examining the influence of factors such as race, gender, age, religious affiliation, and political affiliation.
The findings revealed several key insights into the dynamics of abortion attitudes in America. First, while there have been minor shifts in attitudes based on race and gender, the overall trend has been one of stability. Notably, Black Americans have become more supportive of legal abortion, whereas attitudes among white Americans and between genders have remained relatively unchanged. Age, surprisingly, has not been a factor driving more liberal attitudes toward abortion, unlike its influence on other social issues.
The most significant shifts were observed among religious and partisan groups. Evangelical Christians showed a marked move toward more conservative abortion attitudes, while secular Americans remained the most supportive of legal abortion. Partisan shifts were particularly striking, with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats more liberal over time. These changes, however, have balanced each other out, contributing to the overall stability of abortion attitudes at the national level.
“Even though abortion attitudes in the aggregate look incredibly stable from 1973-2022, there are important underlying shifts taking place that are now incredibly relevant in the post-Roe era,” Elder told PsyPost. “The reason abortion attitudes look stable is that the big changes in abortion attitudes have largely canceled each other out.”
“For example, Democrats have become more supportive of access to abortion at about the same rate that Republicans have become more opposed to abortion access. Also, the percent of Americans who are non-religious, who also have the most liberal views on abortion access, has increased while white evangelical Christians have become even more anti-abortion. The aggregate result of these shifts is a deceptive stability in public opinion on abortion.”
Despite the robust findings, the study acknowledges certain limitations. The data do not capture the intensity of individuals’ opinions on abortion or how this issue ranks in importance compared to other political concerns.
Additionally, while the study provides a detailed snapshot of abortion attitudes up to 2018, it does not account for the potential impact of the Dobbs decision in 2022, which overturned Roe v. Wade and significantly altered the legal landscape of abortion rights in America. Future research directions will need to explore the ongoing shifts in abortion attitudes in the post-Dobbs era, examining how the intensity and prioritization of abortion as a political issue may change.
“The major caveat is that this study is based on data from prior to the 2022 Dobbs decision,” Elder said. “The big question now is how has this decision and the significant changes in state abortion laws in its aftermath influences public opinion on abortion–and what is driving those changes?”
The study, “Deceptively Stable? How the Stability of Aggregate Abortion Attitudes Conceals Partisan Induced Shifts“, was authored by Melissa Deckman, Laurel Elder, Steven Greene, and Mary-Kate Lizotte.
