White Americans who perceive significant discrimination against their racial group are more likely to harbor doubts about the integrity of election outcomes, according to new research published in the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics. The findings provide evidence that feelings of victimization are an important predictor of increased skepticism towards the democratic process.
Donald Trump and his allies have asserted widespread voter fraud and election rigging in the 2020 Presidential Election, which he lost to Joe Biden. Despite a lack of evidence and numerous court rejections, this baseless claim gained traction among a significant portion of Trump’s supporters, fueling a dangerous and unprecedented attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The researchers embarked on their study against this tumultuous backdrop, aiming to dissect the underpinnings of election skepticism. Motivated by the recognition that democracy’s health hinges on the public’s trust in its electoral institutions, the researchers sought to better understand how perceptions of discrimination and victimization among White Americans might be influencing their faith in the fairness and legitimacy of elections.
“I study the effect of racial attitudes on White political judgements,” said study author Alexandra Filindra, an associate professor of political science and psychology at the University of Illinois Chicago. “There is a lot of evidence that a lot of White Americans today believe that as a group they are victims of discrimination, what we call White grievance.”
“In earlier work, we showed that such beliefs undermine trust in the federal government. Scholars have already shown that racial prejudice is correlated with doubts about the integrity of American elections. In this study, we sought to test whether White grievance is associated with beliefs that the elections are not run fairly.”
For their study, the researchers drew on data from two major sources: the American National Election Studies (ANES) spanning 2012 to 2020, and a 2021 survey conducted by YouGov, focusing exclusively on non-Hispanic White participants.
White grievance was measured through questions aimed at gauging participants’ perceptions of discrimination against Whites in the United States. These questions were designed to capture the extent to which individuals believed Whites faced discrimination, ranging from “none at all” to “a great deal.” This measure served as the study’s primary independent variable.
To assess skepticism towards the electoral process, the study utilized several dependent variables. Participants were asked about their confidence in the fairness of vote counting, the impartiality of election officials, and specifically for the 2020 election, whether they believed the election was conducted fairly and legitimately.
In addition to these primary measures, the study incorporated a range of control variables and additional measures, including political affiliations, ideologies, attitudes towards minority groups, and demographic factors such as age, income, education, and gender. This comprehensive approach ensured that the analysis accounted for a wide array of factors that could influence perceptions of election fairness, allowing the researchers to isolate the specific impact of White grievance from other potential confounding influences.
There was a clear indication that White grievance was linked to skepticism towards the fairness of elections. This relationship was consistently observed across multiple election cycles, from 2012 to 2020, suggesting a deep-seated and persistent influence of perceived racial grievance on democratic faith. The 2020 election, in particular, stood out as a moment when these sentiments intensified, reflecting the polarized and contentious nature of the political climate.
“Our results show that White grievance colored White Americans’ beliefs about election fairness in all presidential elections since 2012 (we don’t have the measure for earlier years),” Filindra told PsyPost.
Political affiliation emerged as a key variable, with Republican identification being linked to heightened skepticism, especially in the lead-up to and aftermath of the 2020 election. This correlation was particularly pronounced, suggesting that partisan identity plays a crucial role in shaping beliefs about the legitimacy of election outcomes. The spread of the “Big Lie” — the unfounded claim that the 2020 election was stolen — likely exacerbated these sentiments among Republicans, further entrenching skepticism.
“Our racial identities and the perceptions we have about how our groups are treated, even when such beliefs are erroneous, play a major role in how we relate to the political system,” Filindra said. “We are more likely to believe in election-related conspiracies and view the government as untrustworthy (‘the swamp’) and elections as unfair if we feel that our groups are disrespected and their dignity is threatened. This is the case not only for our partisan affiliations, but our racial memberships as well.”
“Political elites, especially those associated with the MAGA movement, have implicitly and explicitly cultivated such grievances. This is a very dangerous game to play: democracy depends on citizens believing that institutions are generally fair and that even if their side loses today, they will get a fair chance to compete tomorrow.”
The study also revealed that other factors played a role in influencing perceptions of electoral fairness. Higher levels of trust in people and higher educational attainment were associated with greater confidence in the fairness of elections, suggesting pathways through which democratic resilience might be reinforced.
Conversely, racial prejudice and conservative ideology, while influential, had variable impacts across different election cycles, indicating a complex interplay of factors that contribute to election skepticism. For instance, negative stereotypes towards Black people were significantly associated with election skepticism in 2012 but not in subsequent years, while conservative ideology was significantly associated with election skepticism only in 2020.
Interestingly, the research distinguished between White grievance and White identity, finding that while the former appeared to sow seeds of doubt about election fairness, the latter did not share this negative association. In fact, a strong sense of White identity correlated positively with faith in the electoral process, suggesting that it is the feeling of victimization, rather than racial identity per se, that fuels skepticism.
No study is without its limitations, and this research is no exception. The reliance on self-reported data opens the door to potential biases in how participants perceive and report their experiences and attitudes. The focus on non-Hispanic Whites, while essential for the research question, leaves unanswered how grievance and identity might play out in other racial and ethnic groups. Additionally, the study’s design cannot conclusively prove causation — whether White grievance leads to election skepticism or if another underlying factor drives both sentiments.
“This is a correlational study, not an experiment,” Filindra told PsyPost. “As such there could be other factors that we have not identified but when measured could weaken our results.”
Looking ahead, the researchers advocate for broader investigations into the relationship between group identity, grievance, and trust in democratic institutions.
“I am interested in how racial group grievances and especially White grievance may be related to factors that undermine American democracy, such as support for political violence, engagement with movements that promote insurrectionism and violence, support for gun rights for political purposes (to defend against tyranny),” Filindra said. “Some of this is explored in my recent book, Race Rights and Rifles: The Origins of the NRA and American Gun Culture (University of Chicago Press 2023).”
“We plan to track these relationships throughout the 2024 election season using a cross-sectional panel study,” the researcher added.
The study, “Who Buys the “Big Lie”? White Racial Grievance and Confidence in the Fairness of American Elections“, was authored by Alexandra Filindra, Noah J. Kaplan, and Andrea Manning.
