A recent study published in Politics, Groups, and Identities has found that up to one-third of Americans believe in the “White Replacement” conspiracy theory. The study provides evidence that these beliefs are linked to personality traits such as anti-social tendencies, authoritarianism, and negative views toward immigrants, minorities, women, and the political establishment. Surprisingly, however, partisanship and ideology did not significantly predict belief in this conspiracy theory, suggesting that these views transcend typical political divides.
The White Replacement conspiracy theory, often referred to as “White Genocide,” has gained attention in recent years due to its promotion by media figures and political leaders, as well as its association with acts of mass violence. Proponents claim that white people are being systematically replaced by people of color, particularly through immigration policies that favor non-white populations. This idea has been cited as a motivation for multiple violent attacks, including the mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Despite the seriousness of this conspiracy theory, previous research has largely focused on more general attitudes toward immigration, racial resentment, or white identity. Less attention has been paid to understanding who subscribes to White Replacement beliefs and what motivates them. The current study aimed to address this gap by investigating the prevalence of these beliefs, the psychological and political factors that predict them, and their links to political behavior and intentions.
“There have been numerous mass shootings tied to these beliefs. Numerous media personalities, such as Tucker Carlson, have expressed these beliefs,” said study author Joseph Uscinski, a professor of political science at the University of Miami and co-author of Conspiracy Theories: A Primer.
The researchers surveyed a representative sample of 2,001 Americans in 2022. This sample was designed to reflect the U.S. population in terms of sex, age, race, education, and income. To measure belief in the White Replacement conspiracy, participants responded to three key statements. These included statements such as, “Powerful politicians and corporate leaders are trying to replace white people in the U.S. with cheaper foreign laborers” and “In the last 20 years, the government has deliberately discriminated against white Americans through its immigration policies.”
In addition to assessing belief in White Replacement, the survey measured a range of psychological traits. Social and political attitudes were also collected. The researchers further assessed participants’ political affiliations, trust in government, and interest in traditional and fringe media sources. The goal was to examine how psychological factors, social views, and political attitudes intersected with belief in the White Replacement conspiracy theory.
Finally, participants were asked about their intentions and behaviors related to political participation. These questions ranged from normative activities, like voting or running for office, to nonnormative behaviors, such as engaging in violence or sharing false information online.
The study found that belief in the White Replacement conspiracy theory was more prevalent than might have been expected. Around one-third of participants agreed with statements suggesting that white people are being intentionally replaced by people of color through the actions of powerful elites. This belief was not confined to any particular racial or ethnic group; both white and non-white respondents expressed similar levels of agreement with these ideas.
The survey also revealed several key psychological and social factors that were associated with belief in the conspiracy theory. People who believed in White Replacement were more likely to score higher on measures of anti-social personality traits, such as narcissism, psychopathy, and a desire for chaos. They were also more likely to express authoritarian views, including a preference for strict social hierarchies and distrust of those outside their group. In terms of social attitudes, believers in White Replacement exhibited stronger negative views toward immigrants, minorities, and women, and expressed higher levels of racial resentment and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Individuals who consumed more fringe media, such as far-right websites and social media platforms, were more likely to believe in the conspiracy. However, mainstream media consumption did not significantly impact belief in White Replacement, suggesting that exposure to these ideas may be more concentrated in specific online communities.
Interestingly, the study found that partisanship and political ideology were not strong predictors of belief in the White Replacement conspiracy. While conservatives and Republicans were slightly more likely to hold these views, the differences were not as pronounced as expected. Instead, the most significant predictors were psychological traits and anti-establishment sentiments. This suggests that belief in the White Replacement conspiracy may be less about traditional left-right politics and more about broader feelings of distrust and alienation from the political system.
The researchers also found that belief in the White Replacement conspiracy was associated with a range of nonnormative political behaviors. People who subscribed to this conspiracy theory were more likely to report engaging in political violence or expressing a willingness to do so. They were also more likely to share false information online, engage in political arguments, and express interest in running for office or participating in protests. These findings raise concerns about the potential for belief in this conspiracy theory to translate into real-world actions, including violence.
“Many people believe that white people are being systematically replaced in the United States and in Europe,” Uscinski told PsyPost. “Some of the people who hold these beliefs share a set of personality traits that are conducive to violence and nonnormative behaviors.”
While the study identifies correlations between White Replacement beliefs and psychological traits, it cannot establish direct causal relationships. The reliance on self-reported data also introduces the possibility of bias, as participants may underreport socially undesirable behaviors, such as political violence. Future research could benefit from employing experimental designs or longitudinal studies to better understand the development of these beliefs over time and their potential to inspire action.
“The study of these beliefs is only beginning and researchers are still trying to find the best ways to measure them,” Uscinski noted. “The hope is that we can better understand why violence is tied to these beliefs and then hopefully prevent that violence.”
The study, “Belief in White Replacement,” was authored by Casey Klofstad, Olyvia Christley, Amanda Diekman, Sandra Kübler, Adam Enders, John Funchion, Shane Littrell, Manohar Murthi, Kamal Premaratne, Michelle Seelig, Daniel Verdear, Stefan Wuchty, Hugo Drochon, and Joseph Uscinski.
