Racial attitudes and economic optimism predict Trump support among Asian American voters

Asian American voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election tended to hold particular economic evaluations, alongside specific racial and anti-immigrant attitudes. These patterns mirror trends seen in other racial groups, providing new insight into the shifting political preferences of a rapidly growing segment of the American electorate. The findings were published in the journal Political Research Quarterly.

Asian Americans are the fastest-growing single-race group in the United States. Historically, many racial minority groups have favored Democratic candidates in national elections. Recent presidential races have revealed shifts in these patterns, with some voter segments increasing their support for Republican candidates. Political scientists aim to understand the specific attitudes associated with these changing voting decisions.

In the past, political behavior research often emphasized issue-based voting and economic concerns. Voters tend to evaluate the economy and select candidates they believe will maximize their future financial well-being. Researchers want to know how strongly these foundational economic views affect voters from marginalized backgrounds.

For racial and ethnic minorities, identity-based factors usually play a prominent role in voting. Researchers study concepts like “linked fate,” which measures how much a person believes their individual life chances depend on the overall success of their racial group. Another identity-based factor is racial resentment, a metric used in political science to gauge anti-Black prejudice. Studies evaluate how these attitudes correspond with political choices.

Political scientists Joyce H. Nguy of Golden West College, Nathan K. Chan of Loyola Marymount University, and Jessica HyunJeong Lee of California State University, Fullerton, led the research. They designed a study to test how economic and racial elements interacted during recent presidential campaigns. They aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of Asian American voting behavior across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections.

Free daily newsletter

The researchers analyzed data from the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey. This is a large national survey featuring oversamples of minority populations. The data included responses collected in the months immediately following the last three presidential elections.

The total sample contained 24,061 eligible voters who reported casting a ballot. This included a large sample of 5,776 Asian American voters across the three election cycles. The researchers compared their responses to those of Black, Latino, and White voters to see if Asian American voting patterns were unique or reflective of broader national trends.

The survey asked participants about their presidential vote choice. It also included questions about their economic outlook, feelings of racial solidarity, attitudes toward Black Americans, and opinions on immigration. The researchers then used statistical models to identify which attitudes correlated with voting for Donald Trump.

Looking at the raw numbers, the researchers noted that about 38 percent of Asian American voters supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, while 57 percent voted for Kamala Harris. Support varied somewhat by national origin. Vietnamese and Filipino Americans supported Trump at the highest rates within the demographic, while Japanese Americans were the least likely to vote for him.

The researchers noted that these baseline voting levels were similar to those seen in the Latino electorate in 2024, where roughly 38 percent also supported Trump. Support for the Republican candidate remained much lower among Black voters at around 18 percent. White Americans were the only group where a majority supported Trump.

When running their statistical models, the researchers found that economic evaluations were strongly associated with vote choice in 2024. Survey participants were asked if they were optimistic or pessimistic about their future family income and job prospects. Optimism about the economy was linked to a higher likelihood of voting for Trump among Asian Americans.

This economic trend was not isolated to one demographic. Black, Latino, and White voters who expressed economic optimism in the 2024 survey were also more likely to have voted for the Republican candidate.

Alongside the economy, racial solidarity played a major role in how Asian Americans voted. The survey measured linked fate by asking respondents how much they felt their own lives were affected by what happens to other people of their same race. Stronger feelings of linked fate correlated with a lower likelihood of supporting Trump.

This effect was heavily present in 2020, a year marked by a spike in anti-Asian hate incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic. The influence of linked fate persisted into 2024, showing that racial solidarity continued to shape political choices even as the national dialogue shifted. A similar dynamic appeared among Black voters, where strong linked fate predicted lower Trump support. Linked fate did not have a statistically significant relationship with opposition to Trump among Latino and White voters in 2024.

The researchers also examined out-group racial attitudes. They measured this using standard survey questions designed to capture racial resentment. Higher levels of racial resentment were associated with a greater likelihood of voting for Trump among Asian Americans.

This pattern extended to other groups as well. In the 2024 election, racial resentment predicted higher Trump support among all non-Black voter groups. The researchers noted this relationship was consistent across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections for Asian American, Latino, and White voters alike.

Views on immigration provided another strong predictor of voting behavior. The survey asked if respondents felt immigrants strengthened the country or if they weakened American culture and the economy. Agreeing that immigrants weaken the country was linked to a higher probability of voting for Trump.

This correlation appeared heavily among Asian Americans, which is notable because they are predominantly a population with immigrant origins. The researchers suggest that some members of immigrant communities may adopt assimilationist views or a belief in strict meritocracy. These psychological mechanisms can lead to conservative preferences that diverge from the broader collective interests of immigrants. Anti-immigrant sentiment was similarly associated with Trump support among Latino, Black, and White voters.

The study relies on observational survey data. This means the statistical models can only show associations between attitudes and voting behavior. The data cannot prove that a specific belief definitively caused a person to vote a certain way.

Additionally, the survey questions measuring economic attitudes changed over time. In 2016 and 2020, respondents were asked to select the most important issues they wanted the government to address. In 2024, they were asked about their personal economic optimism. Because the metrics differ, it is difficult to accurately measure how much the influence of the economy changed between individual election years.

The researchers also pointed out that changes in overall voter support might relate to voter turnout rather than individuals changing their political views. The data suggests that Asian Americans who turned out to vote in 2024 favored Trump at higher rates than those who stayed home. Future studies will need to explore how much of the shifting political landscape is driven by fluctuating turnout versus shifting partisan loyalties.

Further research is needed to see if these racial and economic considerations continue to operate the same way in future election cycles. Scientists also want to study if these patterns hold steady when Donald Trump is not a candidate on the ballot.

The study, “How Election Fundamentals and Racialized Considerations Shape Asian American Vote Choice Through the Trump Era,” was authored by Joyce H. Nguy, Nathan K. Chan, and Jessica HyunJeong Lee.