GOP’s midterm hopes faltered as abortion outranked economy among key voters, study finds

In the aftermath of the 2022 Congressional midterm elections, political analysts were surprised by the Democratic Party’s performance, which contradicted predictions of a strong Republican showing. A recent study published in the journal PLOS One presents evidence that voters were notably influenced by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The findings indicate that issue of abortion became a focal point in the midterms, helping Democrats attract swing voters, including Republicans in key races.

Historically, the president’s party usually loses seats during midterms, particularly when economic conditions are poor and the president’s approval ratings are low. In 2022, despite high inflation and President Biden’s relatively low approval ratings, Democrats held on to more seats than anticipated.

“Experts and scholars were generally convinced that the Democratic Party was poised to suffer defeats similar to what the President’s party experienced in the 2018, 2014, 2010, and 2006 midterm elections,” the study authors explained. “However, the actual election results caught pundits and scholars off guard. The Democratic Party only lost nine seats in the House of Representatives and managed to gain one seat in the Senate.”

Recognizing the need to understand what caused this deviation, the researchers sought to identify factors that may have influenced voting behavior beyond economic and presidential approval metrics. They were particularly interested in whether a single issue, like abortion, could sway voter decisions in a way that traditional models couldn’t predict.

The research team conducted a survey with 2,109 registered voters across the United States. This survey was conducted immediately after the 2022 midterm elections and focused on voters’ political preferences, party identification, and the significance they attached to various issues, such as the economy, immigration, crime, and abortion. By using a structured survey with a national sample, the researchers were able to obtain data that represented a diverse set of opinions and demographics.

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Voters were asked not only whom they voted for but also which issues they felt were significant in their decision-making process. One of the key questions examined the importance of abortion in voters’ choices, particularly in light of the recent Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which removed federal protections for abortion rights by overturning Roe v. Wade. This focus allowed researchers to determine whether the court’s decision had heightened the issue’s importance for persuadable voters—especially Independents and Republicans who might not typically prioritize abortion.

The study found that abortion was indeed a decisive factor in persuading voters who typically are not strongly aligned with a particular political party. For Independent voters in particular, abortion emerged as a leading issue influencing support for Democratic candidates, marking a shift in voting patterns. The researchers observed that many persuadable voters, including Independents and some Republicans, were drawn to Democratic candidates as they prioritized the protection of abortion rights.

By comparing this midterm data to a similar survey conducted after the 2020 presidential election, the researchers found that abortion’s role in 2022 voting was significantly more prominent. Before the Dobbs decision, abortion was a much less influential issue. After the ruling, the topic gained significant importance among voters who were concerned about the potential rollback of reproductive rights.

In terms of issue prioritization, abortion ranked closely with other traditionally high-priority issues such as crime and the economy, but it was particularly impactful among persuadable voters. The study also found that while economic factors remained a consistent concern, they did not have as much of an influence on voting behavior in 2022 as the issue of abortion did. This finding challenges the idea that midterm elections are mainly referendums on the economy and presidential performance.

“In the lead-up to the midterm elections, Republican leaders asserted that abortion would not be the determining factor for voters, emphasizing that crime and inflation would hold greater significance in the minds of the electorate,” the researchers wrote. “Nevertheless, our research uncovers a different reality, demonstrating that abortion, alongside crime and immigration, played a vital role in shaping the decisions of Independent voters. Particularly noteworthy was the substantial increase in the impact of the abortion issue compared to previous elections. In contrast, inflation emerged as a less dependable predictor of Independent voters’ choices, offering only ambiguous signals in comparison to the other issues.”

As with all research, there are limitations. Since the research relied on survey data, the team was dependent on participants accurately reporting their voting behavior and motivations. Additionally, the sample was collected online, which might affect the representativeness of the data if online respondents differ from the general population in terms of political engagement.

Looking ahead, researchers suggest that future studies could explore the influence of specific issues in even greater depth, particularly in elections with similar unexpected outcomes. They propose that subsequent research could analyze other factors, like social media and campaign messaging, which may also amplify the importance of certain issues during elections.

The study, “Persuadable voters decided the 2022 midterm: Abortion rights and issues-based frameworks for studying election outcomes,” was authored by Claudia Kann, Daniel Ebanks, Jacob Morrier, and R. Michael Alvarez.