New research sheds light on growing support for Black candidates among white Democrats

A new study published in the American Political Science Review finds that white Democrats have become more likely to support Black political candidates over the past fifteen years, especially when they express concern about racial injustice and low levels of racial resentment. This trend has coincided with a notable increase in the number of Black congressional representatives elected in majority-white districts. The research suggests that shifting racial attitudes—not just political ideology—are helping drive this change.

The study was motivated by a longstanding challenge in democratic systems: How can historically marginalized groups achieve equitable representation in majority-rule contexts? Black Americans have been underrepresented in Congress despite often living in racially diverse or majority-white districts.

In many cases, winning office requires support from white voters, who have historically preferred candidates of their own racial background. Yet recent elections suggest something may be changing. In 2018, for instance, all nine new Black members of Congress were elected in majority- or plurality-white districts—a pattern that has continued in subsequent election cycles.

“Scholarship on white identity politics has really taken off over the last decade or so, especially — understandably — about white Americans on the conservative side of the political spectrum,” said study author Anna Mikkelborg, an assistant professor of political science at Colorado State University.

“Over this same period, though, white Democrats’ racial attitudes rapidly liberalized. We know a lot about privileged groups mobilizing politically in ways that protect their status, but less about instances in which they might want to flatten the group hierarchy, so I was curious to see whether white Democrats might put their liberal racial attitudes into action in the voting booth.”

The study examined how white Democrats’ preferences for Black candidates have evolved alongside changes in their racial attitudes. A key focus was on the concept of descriptive representation, or the idea that voters may prefer candidates who share their racial identity. While past research has shown that Black voters often support Black candidates because they expect them to better advocate for their interests, white voters have historically been less supportive of Black candidates, sometimes due to prejudice or fear of losing political influence.

But recent years have brought significant changes in public opinion. Between 2016 and 2020, white Democrats’ views on race shifted sharply. Measures of racial resentment and opposition to race-conscious policies declined, and perceptions of discrimination against Black Americans increased. This polarization—between increasingly racially liberal white Democrats and more racially conservative white Republicans—has persisted into the Biden era. Researchers wondered whether this change in attitudes might also be reflected in voting behavior.

To investigate, the study used several methods. First, the author analyzed congressional election data from 2010 to 2022. The results showed that Black candidates increasingly won in majority-white districts, even after accounting for slow demographic changes. While Black representatives remain rare in heavily white areas, their numbers have grown significantly. In 2010, just 2.2% of majority-white districts were represented by Black members of Congress; by 2022, that figure had nearly tripled to 6.2%.

But district-level outcomes don’t reveal what’s happening in voters’ minds. To answer that question, Mikkelborg conducted a meta-analysis of 42 candidate-choice experiments conducted between 1988 and 2023. In these experiments, participants were asked to choose between hypothetical Black and white candidates with similar qualifications. The meta-analysis included over 40,000 participants across different racial and political groups. The study also incorporated six new experiments conducted by Mikkelborg between 2022 and 2023, including a survey of California voters.

The findings showed that White Democrats have shifted from a clear preference for white candidates in the 1980s and early 2000s to a slight but statistically significant preference for Black candidates in recent years. The turning point came after 2016, when racial attitudes among white Democrats shifted sharply left. This change in behavior was not observed among white Republicans or Black Democrats, whose preferences remained relatively stable.

“There were many surprises along the way, but one that stands out is the ubiquity of the preference for Black candidate profiles that I found: across different geographic regions, age groups, and levels of educational attainment and household income, all kinds of white Democratic study participants were enthusiastic about Black candidates,” Mikkelborg told PsyPost.

Importantly, the preference for Black candidates among white Democrats was strongest among those who expressed the most concern about racial injustice and who reported the lowest levels of racial resentment. In one experiment, participants who believed that Black Americans face “a great deal” of discrimination selected the Black candidate nearly 60% of the time, compared to about 41% among those who believed there is little or no discrimination. These findings suggest that liberal racial attitudes are not just associated with neutrality or a willingness to overlook race—they are linked to an active preference for Black candidates.

Mikkelborg also looked at other possible explanations for this shift. One hypothesis was that white Democrats might be using candidate race as a shortcut for estimating political ideology—assuming that Black candidates are more liberal and aligning their vote accordingly. However, when candidate ideology was explicitly stated in the experiments, the preference for Black candidates persisted, even when the white candidate was more ideologically aligned with the voter. This suggests that racial attitudes, not just ideological preferences, are influencing voters’ decisions.

Another question the study addressed was whether support for Black candidates is symbolic (meant to signal support for diversity) or instrumental (tied to specific policy goals). In a test involving candidates with differing stances on reparations, white Democrats prioritized policy alignment over candidate identity, but still favored Black candidates when both had similar positions. This indicates that while voters value descriptive representation, it is often seen as a way to promote substantive policy change rather than a substitute for it.

“What the average person should not take away from my findings is the idea that there is no longer anti-Black racism within the Democratic Party — that is certainly not true,” Mikkelborg said. “But my findings are important for what they say about how white voters respond to Black candidates in aggregate.”

“There is ample evidence that political elites hesitate to recruit and support candidates of color in predominantly white places, even heavily Democratic ones, because the conventional wisdom is that as a group, white voters prefer white candidates. My research suggests that this ‘strategic discrimination’ against prospective candidates of color isn’t a good strategy anymore, and might even deny voters the chance to support a candidate they might be really excited about.”

Feelings toward political figures also played a role. Among white Democrats, negative feelings toward Donald Trump were more strongly associated with support for Black candidates than positive feelings toward Joe Biden. This suggests that opposition to Trump’s rhetoric and policies—often viewed as racially divisive—may have pushed some white Democrats to become more actively supportive of racial justice and representation.

The study is not without limitations. “Although my research is grounded in the empirical fact that Black candidates are running and winning in whiter Congressional districts than they used to, the main studies in this paper are experiments that present people with hypothetical candidate profiles in hypothetical elections,” Mikkelborg noted. “This method is effective for identifying the direction of voter preferences, but shouldn’t be used to predict the exact strength of those preferences in the context of a real election. Other scholarship — including some of my own — complements this work by examining how white voters react to real-life politicians of color.”

“In a series of new projects, I am shifting my focus from the dyadic relationship between voter and candidate to how Americans are responding to the increasing racial diversity of government as a whole. My central goal remains deepening our understanding of whether, when, and how privileged groups react positively to increasing representation of the historically marginalized.”

“In addition to generous support from UC Berkeley, funding from the National Science Foundation made this research possible,” Mikkelborg added. “With the NSF now revoking funding for projects related to race, I hope that other potential funders will step up to support emerging scholars’ work on these topics.”

The study, “White Democrats’ Growing Support for Black Politicians in the Era of the ‘Great Awokening,’” was published February 28, 2025.