New study reveals how male and female job loss disrupts family planning differently

An analysis of data from Norway administrative databases covering the period between 2005 and 2017 found that job loss seems to disrupt childbirth, but that specific effects depend on gender. Female partner’s job loss made it less likely that a couple will have their first child, regardless of household income at the time of the job loss. On the other hand, male partners’ job loss disrupted couple’s progression to having a second child. The paper was published in Social Science Research.

Employment and income instability occur when people face uncertain work, irregular earnings, involuntary job loss, or repeated periods of unemployment. Such instability reduces household resources and can make ordinary expenses, debt payments, housing costs, and future commitments more difficult to manage. However, its psychological consequences extend beyond the immediate loss of income because employment also provides routine, social status, identity, and a sense of purpose.

When a job disappears unexpectedly, individuals may experience anxiety, shame, helplessness, and reduced confidence in their ability to control their lives. Uncertainty about how long unemployment will last can be particularly stressful because it prevents people from making reliable plans for housing, education, marriage, or parenthood. Even in generous welfare states that replace part of the lost income, fears about long-term career prospects and recurrent unemployment may persist.

Job loss tends to be especially damaging when employment is closely connected to socially expected roles, such as the expectation that men should provide financially for their families. Persistent insecurity can also strain relationships, increase conflict between partners, and make separation more likely. People with savings, higher earnings, or stronger welfare entitlements are generally better able to absorb employment shocks, whereas economically vulnerable households tend to experience more severe and lasting psychological distress.

Study author Rishabh Tyagi and his colleagues studied the link between job loss and fertility (i.e., people having children) in Norway in the period between 2005 and 2017. This included the period of the so-called Great Recession, the global economic downturn triggered by the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

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Study authors note that the case of Norway was somewhat special as it was affected less severely by the Great Recession than many countries because of its strong oil revenues, strong public finances, and welfare system. However, it still experienced company closures and resulting job loss, reduced economic growth, and people’s increased uncertainty about future employment and income. In this period, unemployment in Norway ranged between 2.7% and 4.9%, which is considerably lower than in most European countries.

The authors of this study used Norwegian administrative data from employment-employee and population registers. The employer-employee registers for a given year cover the population with active employment that year and who receive a wage in that year. Data from this register used in this study covered the period from 2005 to 2014.

Study authors linked these data to the population register, which provides detailed information on economic activity, educational attainment, marital status, and childbirth records. Study authors focused on partnered men and women who were between 15 and 50 years of age (i.e., of reproductive age), and registered as residents in Norway. Data from the population register covered the entire study period.

Results indicated that job loss in general was associated with disrupted childbirth. However, the likely effects depended on gender and income. More specifically, when a female partner experienced job loss due to a plant closure, the likelihood that the couple would have their first child decreased by 1.82 percentage points. This negative effect remained even after controlling for household income at the time of job loss.

On the other hand, a male partner experiencing a job loss was not associated with decreased likelihood of having the first child. A male partner’s job loss delayed the time when the couple would have the second child.

“The limited role of income suggests that fertility responses to job loss are not reducible to short-run financial constraints. Instead, they reflect how employment structures couples’ life-course planning and perceived readiness for parenthood. That female job loss deters entry into parenthood while male job loss deters expansion implies that economic-role convergence has not paralleled convergence in the social meaning of job loss,” the study authors concluded.

The study contributes to the scientific understanding of the links between the domains of work and family. However, it should be noted that the case of Norway is special both because the negative economic effects experienced during the studied period were less severe compared to other countries and because Norway has strong welfare protections that mitigate the adverse financial consequences of job loss. Studies in countries with worse economic performance and less comprehensive welfare may differ, likely showing more severe consequences of job loss.

The paper, “Job loss and births. A couple-level study of Norwegian plant closures,” was authored by Rishabh Tyagi, Elisa Brini, and Daniele Vignoli.