New research published in the journal Applied Cognitive Psychology identifies specific psychological traits associated with a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories. The findings suggest that individuals who perceive the world as fundamentally unjust and those who struggle with uncertain or ambiguous situations are more likely to endorse conspiratorial narratives.
Psychological research into conspiracy theories has expanded significantly in recent years. While many studies focus on specific beliefs, such as those regarding climate change or public health events, fewer have examined the broader mindset that makes someone prone to these ideas.
The authors of the new study aimed to explore the “cover-up” aspect of conspiracy thinking. This perspective involves the belief that powerful organizations conceal the truth and that skeptics are the ones who are misguided.
“I have long been interested in conspiracy theories, having published around 20 papers on the topic over the past decade or so. Few, if any, researchers have taken into account the ‘cover up’ perspective of conspiracy believers,” study author Adrian Furnham, a professor at the Norwegian Business School. “I have also long been interested in both beliefs about justice (Just World Theory) and more recently Tolerance of Ambiguity, which I believe is neglected in the Big Five framework. Both seemed obviously associated with conspiracy theories.”
The concept of “Tolerance of Ambiguity” describes how a person reacts to vague, inconsistent, or unclear information. The researchers wanted to test if the discomfort caused by ambiguity drives people toward the clear explanations offered by conspiracy theories. They also investigated how beliefs about justice in the world interact with these personality traits.
To conduct the study, the research team recruited 253 adults to participate in an online survey. The participants came from various countries, with the largest groups residing in Great Britain, South Africa, the United States, and Canada. The average age of the respondents was approximately 49 years old. The majority of the sample held a university degree.
To measure conspiracy mentality, the researchers used a ten-item scale. This scale included statements about secret organizations influencing political decisions and government agencies monitoring citizens. It also included items specifically designed to assess the belief that official narratives are deliberate cover-ups. One such item asked participants if they believed politicians usually hide the true motives for their decisions.
Participants also completed assessments regarding their demographic information, political views, and religious beliefs. They rated their level of optimism and whether they believed the world is generally just or unjust. Additionally, they completed a personality assessment known as the High Potential Trait Indicator. This tool measured six specific traits, including Adjustment, Competitiveness, Risk Approach, and Tolerance of Ambiguity.
The researchers found several distinct patterns among the participants. Demographic factors showed that younger individuals were slightly more likely to endorse conspiracy beliefs than older individuals. Women also showed a slightly higher tendency to endorse these views compared to men. However, these demographic effects were relatively small compared to other variables.
Political and religious factors played a more substantial role. Participants who identified as more religiously observant tended to have higher scores on the conspiracy mentality measure. Similarly, those who identified as politically conservative were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories than those who identified as liberal. These findings align with previous research linking certain ideological frameworks to conspiratorial thinking.
The most significant predictors were related to how individuals view the world and process information. The study found a strong link between a belief in an unjust world and conspiracy thinking. Those who felt that the world is fundamentally unfair were more inclined to believe that powerful groups are secretly manipulating events. This sense of injustice was a powerful indicator of a conspiratorial mindset.
Tolerance of Ambiguity emerged as another primary factor. Participants with lower scores in this trait, meaning they feel uncomfortable with uncertainty or vagueness, were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories. The data indicates that for these individuals, conspiracy narratives might provide a sense of certainty and closure that is otherwise missing. When faced with complex events, a conspiracy theory offers a definitive cause.
“Important determinants of those who believe in many/all conspiracy theories is the extent to which they see Justice in the World as well as their personal discomfort with various forms of ambiguity,” Furnham told PsyPost.
The study also produced results that ran contrary to common assumptions. The researchers found that a participant’s level of education was not related to their likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories. Holding a university degree did not appear to buffer individuals against these beliefs. Additionally, the personality trait of Curiosity, often associated with openness to new ideas, did not show a significant relationship with conspiracy beliefs.
These findings provide evidence that conspiracy theories may serve a psychological function for certain individuals. When people face uncertainty or feel a lack of control, they may experience anxiety. Adopting a conspiracy theory can offer a coherent explanation for confusing events. This helps reduce the discomfort associated with ambiguity by replacing chaos with a structured narrative of cause and effect.
The connection to the “unjust world” belief is also significant. Belief in a just world is often considered a coping mechanism that helps people navigate difficulties. It allows people to believe that good things happen to good people. On the other hand, viewing the world as unjust can lead to feelings of powerlessness. Conspiracy theories may validate these feelings by attributing misfortune to the actions of malevolent actors rather than random chance.
Individuals with a low tolerance for ambiguity often exhibit specific cognitive patterns. They may seek to avoid uncertainty by adhering to rigid or simplistic interpretations of events. This is sometimes described as a black-and-white view of the world. Conspiracy theories often present a clear distinction between “good” victims and “evil” perpetrators, which appeals to this cognitive style.
The researchers note that this intolerance of ambiguity is not just a preference but a personality trait that influences how people process threats. Previous studies have shown that people who are uncomfortable with uncertainty may react more strongly to perceived threats. In this context, a conspiracy theory acts as a tool to manage the anxiety produced by the unknown. It transforms a vague threat into a specific enemy that can be identified and blamed.
As with all research, there are some limitations to note. The sample size was relatively small, which limited the statistical power to detect smaller effects for some variables. Additionally, the participants were predominantly middle-aged professionals. This specific demographic group may not fully represent the general population.
Future research could benefit from larger, more diverse samples to verify these associations. The researchers expressed an interest in further exploring the function that conspiracy theories serve for believers. They hope to investigate how people discover these theories and how they form groups of like-minded believers. Understanding the social dynamics of these beliefs remains a priority for future investigation.
The lack of association between education and conspiracy beliefs suggests that intelligence is not the primary factor at play. Smart, educated people are also susceptible to these narratives if they have specific personality traits. This challenges the stereotype that conspiracy theorists are simply uninformed. It points instead to deep-seated psychological needs for structure and justice.
The study, “Conspiracy Theory Mentality, Injustice and Tolerance of Ambiguity,” was authored by Adrian Furnham, Stephen Cuppello, and David S. Semmelink.
