Worsening economic conditions fuel anti-immigrant conspiracy beliefs and support for violence

A new study published in the Journal of Applied Social Psychology finds that economic hardship and a sense of societal decline can contribute to hostile attitudes toward immigrants—especially non-European immigrants—by encouraging belief in conspiracy theories. Across six studies, the researchers found that people who experienced or perceived themselves to be economically disadvantaged were more likely to feel that their society was breaking down. This feeling, known as anomie, was strongly linked to belief in anti-immigrant conspiracy theories and, in turn, to support for discriminatory policies, nonviolent protest, and even violence.

The researchers behind the new study set out to understand the psychological pathways that might explain why anti-immigrant attitudes are rising in countries like the United Kingdom. Previous studies have shown that conspiracy theories often flourish during times of uncertainty and social fragmentation, and that economic stress can fuel resentment and mistrust.

But no research had yet tested whether these factors combine to foster anti-immigrant conspiracy thinking, particularly toward groups portrayed as culturally distant. The authors designed a series of experiments and surveys to test whether economic hardship increases feelings of anomie, which in turn make people more receptive to conspiracy narratives that blame immigrants for society’s problems.

“This project emerged from a partnership with Social Justice Ireland, an independent think tank,” explained Daniel Jolley, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham. “In both Ireland and the United Kingdom, attacks on non-European immigrants were becoming more frequent. We wanted to understand the deeper psychological drivers of this hostility, going beyond surface-level attitudes. Through a collaborative process, we investigated how economic hardship and feelings of societal breakdown (anomie) might fuel conspiracy beliefs about immigrants – and how these beliefs can escalate into violent intentions.”

In the first two studies, the researchers surveyed a total of 984 adults in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Participants answered questions about their financial situation, perceptions of social decline, belief in anti-immigrant conspiracy theories, and support for various policies and behaviors related to non-European immigrants. These included support for reducing welfare access for refugees, boycotting organizations that help immigrants, and even justifying acts of violence.

The results showed that both perceived and actual economic hardship were linked to higher levels of anomie. In turn, anomie was strongly associated with belief in conspiracy theories that claimed immigrants were secretly trying to undermine national values or the economy. Those who endorsed these beliefs were more likely to express support for discriminatory policies and, disturbingly, were more likely to condone or express intent to engage in violence.

To test whether these associations could be replicated outside of self-report surveys, the researchers conducted a third study using a quasi-experimental design. They recruited 760 participants from economically deprived and more affluent postcode areas in the United Kingdom.

Participants in poorer areas reported greater economic hardship, higher levels of anomie, stronger belief in anti-immigrant conspiracies, and less support for immigration policies. They were also more likely to support non-violent actions, like protests or boycotts, aimed at opposing immigration. However, support for direct violence did not significantly differ between groups in this study.

The fourth and fifth studies introduced an experimental simulation. Participants were asked to imagine themselves living in a fictional society where they belonged to either a high-wealth or low-wealth social group.

Those in the low-wealth condition reported higher anomie, which in turn predicted greater belief in conspiracy theories about immigrants. These beliefs were again associated with stronger support for violence and protest, and lower support for pro-immigrant policies. Notably, the pattern held across both UK and Irish samples, suggesting the effect was not limited to a specific national context.

The sixth study added another layer by manipulating not only participants’ economic status in the simulated society but also their exposure to conspiracy narratives. Some participants were shown a short, fabricated news story suggesting that non-European immigrants were secretly working to destabilize the economy.

Compared to those in the control group, participants exposed to this article reported stronger belief in conspiracies, more negative attitudes toward immigrants, and increased willingness to engage in both violent and non-violent actions. These effects were especially strong among those assigned to the low-wealth condition.

“Across six studies, we found clear evidence that economic hardship may erode social cohesion and foster conspiracy beliefs about non-European immigrants,” Jolley told PsyPost. “These beliefs, in turn, are linked to anti-immigrant attitudes and even violent intentions. Crucially, the results suggest that tackling xenophobia isn’t just about addressing attitudes directly – it’s also about addressing the root causes, such as poverty and feelings that society is breaking down.”

“A major strength of this research is its diversity of methods – we measured hardship directly, sampled people from both high- and low-deprivation areas, and even experimentally manipulated perceptions of hardship. Across all approaches, we saw the same pattern. The most striking and concerning finding was that exposure to conspiratorial narratives about immigrants – combined with economic hardship – could directly increase violent intent. This link between conspiracy exposure and violence has rarely been shown so clearly.”

The research points to several potential ways to address rising anti-immigrant sentiment. Efforts could focus on reducing economic inequality, which might ease the social fragmentation that makes conspiracy beliefs more appealing. Policymakers could also counter conspiracy theories by promoting accurate information and encouraging positive interactions between groups. The authors note that exposure to uplifting or pro-immigrant news stories has been shown to reduce hostility, and that cross-group friendships can help inoculate people against conspiracist thinking.

“The study was co-designed with Social Justice Ireland, from the research materials to the interpretation of findings,” Jolley said. “Together, we produced a policy paper arguing that economic hardship not only causes material deprivation but also undermines social cohesion and political literacy. Our policy recommendations call for addressing these underlying social and economic inequalities as part of any strategy to reduce xenophobic violence.”

The study, “The Interplay Between Economic Hardship, Anomie, and Conspiracy Beliefs in Shaping Anti-Immigrant Sentiment,” was authored by Michael Hattersley, Yvonne Skipper, Karen M. Douglas, and Daniel Jolley.