New research provides evidence that Donald Trump’s attacks on the media, Congress, and the courts often result in increased support for those institutions. The study, published in Political Research Quarterly, examined whether the former president’s rhetoric influenced democratic attitudes among U.S. citizens. For the most part, exposure to Trump’s tweets either had no impact or lead to the strengthening of democratic attitudes.
“We were interested in understanding the effects of President Trump’s undemocratic rhetoric on citizens’ democratic attitudes,” said study author Miguel Carreras, an associate professor at the University of California, Riverside
“The conventional wisdom is that United States is a country with a strong liberal tradition with a democratic citizenry that respects liberal principles such as the freedom of the press and checks and balances. The repeated attacks of President Trump against the media, the judiciary, and Congress might have pushed some citizens in a more undemocratic direction, especially in a context of high partisan polarization. We think it is important to study this because an erosion in democratic attitudes can accelerate a process of democratic backsliding (even after Trump departs the political scene).”
For their study, Carreras and his colleagues recruited a sample of 1,000 U.S. residents who were randomly assigned to read either a control tweet, an attack on the media, an attack on Congress, or an attack on the courts.
The control tweet was an attack that Trump made against Arnold Schwarzenegger on March 4, 2017: “Arnold Schwarzenegger isn’t voluntarily leaving the Apprentice, he was fired by his bad (pathetic) ratings, not by me. Sad end to great show.”
The attack on the media was a tweet Trump posted on August 5, 2018: “The Fake News hates me saying that they are the Enemy of the People only because they know it’s TRUE. I am providing a great service by explaining this to the American People. They purposely cause great division & distrust. They can also cause War! They are very dangerous & sick!”
The attack on Congress was a tweet Trump posted on October 10, 2017: “Since Congress can’t get its act together on HealthCare, I will be using the power of the pen to give great HealthCare to many people – FAST.”
Finally, the attack on the courts was a tweet Trump posted on November 22, 2018: “Our highly trained security professionals are not allowed to do their job on the Border because of the Judicial Activism and Interference by the 9th Circuit. Nevertheless, they are working hard to make America a safer place, though hard to do when anybody filing a lawsuit wins!”
Carreras and his colleagues found limited evidence that exposure to some of Trump’s rhetoric moved people in a more anti-democratic direction. Independent participants who read Trump’s attack on Congress tended to be more supportive of the idea of the president disregarding Congress and the courts. Trump’s attack the media also lead to a greater endorsement of the president disregarding Congress among Republicans. These effects were mostly reversed among Democrats.
But the researchers found no evidence that exposure to Trump’s tweets attacking the media, Congress, or the courts influenced attitudes regarding support for democracy. Those exposed to the control tweet were just as likely as those exposed to Trump’s attacks to agree with the statement “Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government.”
Trump’s tweets attacking the media, Congress, or the courts also appeared to have no impact on support for strong leaders among Republican participants, but decreased support for strong leaders among Democratic participants. In addition, those exposed to Trump’s attack on the media were more likely to disagree with the statement “When the press publishes inaccurate information about the government, the president should be able to remove their license,” an effect that was largely driven by Democrats.
“The key finding is that Trump’s undemocratic messages in 2019 (a series of Tweets attacking other liberal institutions) did not lead to an erosion of democratic attitudes. On the contrary, the results suggest there is significant pushback against anti-democratic messages, especially among Democrats,” Carreras told PsyPost.
“Our results add an important caveat to the literature on polarization and democratic erosion in the United States. Previous studies have emphasized the risk posed by partisan polarization for citizens’ attachment to democratic norms. One possible silver lining of partisan polarization is that it can lead supporters of a pro-democracy outparty (i.e., the Democratic party during the Trump administration) to coalesce around democratic norms to fight against authoritarian excesses by the incumbent party.”
But the study, like all research, includes some caveats.
“Our study was conducted in 2019 so we cannot rule out a Trump effect on Republicans’ democratic attitudes before that point,” Carreras explained. “It is plausible (indeed likely) that Trump’s rhetoric contributed to an erosion of democratic norms among Republicans between 2016 and 2019.”
“It is nonetheless remarkable that this effect was ‘priced in’ in 2019, and exposure to Trump’s undemocratic messages did not lead to a further weakening of democratic commitments among Republicans. On the other hand, Democrats appear to become increasingly attached to democratic norms and procedures when exposed to Trump’s tweets.”
The study, “Trump Tweets and Democratic Attitudes: Evidence from a Survey Experiment“, was authored by Shaun Bowler, Miguel Carreras, and Jennifer L. Merolla.
