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A person’s mental health trajectory starting in adolescence predicts their political preferences nearly three decades later. Researchers found that early experiences with anxiety or behavioral issues are associated with distinct voting patterns and lower political trust in midlife. The research was published in the journal Political Psychology.
Political scientists and psychologists often study how adverse life events shape civic participation. Many studies evaluate how factors like poverty, discrimination, or dropping out of high school change adult voting habits. The specific role of mental health development over a person’s life has received less attention in political science.
Researchers wanted to understand if persistent psychological challenges correspond with specific political profiles. Sam Fluit, a psychology researcher at the University of Oslo, led a team to investigate this relationship. They focused on two broad categories of mental health conditions that often begin in youth.
The first category is internalizing problems, which refer to inward-facing symptoms. These typically include feelings of depression, general anxiety, and a sense of hopelessness about the future.
The second category involves externalizing problems, which describe outward-facing maladaptive actions. In adolescence, this might look like vandalism, skipping school, or getting into physical fights. In adulthood, externalizing behaviors often transition into issues like substance abuse, driving under the influence, or aggression in the workplace.
The researchers analyzed data from a large study of 2,215 individuals in Norway. The participants were tracked across five different time points over 28 years. The study began in the early 1990s when the subjects were around 15 years old and concluded in 2020 when they were in their early forties. At each stage, the participants reported the frequency and severity of their mental health symptoms.
During the final survey in midlife, the participants answered questions about twelve different political preferences. These included their voting history, their level of trust in government, their trust in other people, and their general interest in politics.
The survey also measured specific ideological attitudes. Participants placed themselves on the left-to-right political spectrum and answered questions about their views on social equality. They also reported their perceptions of immigrants and their support for conservative policies, such as stricter punishments for criminals.
To understand the data, the team grouped participants based on how their mental health symptoms changed over time. For internalizing problems, they identified three distinct life paths. Most people maintained a low, stable level of symptoms. A second group started with elevated symptoms in adolescence that decreased over time, while a third, smaller group experienced elevated symptoms that actually increased as they grew older.
For externalizing problems, the researchers categorized the participants into two paths. The vast majority of the sample had elevated outward-facing behavioral issues in their youth that eventually declined. A smaller group exhibited elevated externalizing problems that remained steady from adolescence into adulthood.
The researchers then examined how these distinct mental health paths corresponded to adult political outcomes. They discovered that elevated levels of either internalizing or externalizing problems were associated with lower voter turnout. Among the internalizing groups, those whose elevated adolescent symptoms later decreased were less likely to have voted in the last national election than those with low, stable symptoms. Among the externalizing groups, those with persistently elevated problems were less likely to have voted than those whose problems declined.
Both categories of mental health challenges were also linked to lower political and social trust in midlife. Participants in the elevated internalizing groups and the stable externalizing group reported less faith in political institutions. They were also less likely to agree that other people could be trusted in general.
When looking at specific political leanings, the two types of mental health problems diverged. Participants who had elevated internalizing problems in adolescence tended to develop a more left-wing political profile by midlife, regardless of whether their symptoms later increased or decreased. They were less likely to vote for mainstream center-right parties. Those whose internalizing symptoms decreased over time were especially likely to vote for far-left political parties.
The researchers proposed that people dealing with depression and anxiety might be drawn to egalitarian political platforms. Left-leaning ideologies often focus on systemic inequalities, which might resonate with individuals seeking political environments that prioritize social inclusion and community support.
On the other hand, individuals with persistently high externalizing problems demonstrated a more right-wing political profile. This group was more likely to oppose social equality and express support for conservative policies. They also reported higher levels of perceived threat from immigrants.
When casting their ballots, people in this stable externalizing group were twice as likely to vote for populist-right parties. They were half as likely to vote for center-left parties compared to their peers. Externalizing problems are often characterized by antagonism and a general opposition to others. The authors suggested this adversarial worldview might translate into support for populist politicians who use exclusionary rhetoric or position themselves against the established political system.
Because the study relies on observational survey data, the results do not prove that mental health conditions directly alter a person’s political ideology. The relationship might work in multiple directions, with political beliefs and emotional well-being influencing each other over time in a reinforcing loop.
The researchers could only measure political attitudes at the final survey in midlife. This limitation meant they could not track how those specific views shifted simultaneously with mental health changes during adolescence. The externalizing behavior assessments also had to change as the participants aged, since teenagers and adults break rules in different ways.
The data also comes from a single country with a strong social welfare system and a multi-party political landscape. The extensive social safety net in Norway might buffer some of the political disillusionment that can accompany chronic health problems. Different associations might emerge in nations with fewer social protections or in countries dominated by a two-party electoral system.
Future research could explore these dynamics in other populations and track political attitudes from an earlier age. Measuring specific mechanisms, such as how educational attainment or economic hardship link mental health to political choices, might help explain how early psychological experiences translate into adult voting behavior.
The study, “The mental health–politics nexus: How mental health trajectories from adolescence to midlife shape political attitudes and voting patterns,” was authored by Sam Fluit, Kinga Bierwiaczonek, Jonas R. Kunst, and Tilmann von Soest.