Study identifies two distinct types of populist voters driving support for strongman leaders

A survey of people from 9 countries found that in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina, support for populist leaders is driven by authoritarian populist attitudes. In contrast, anti-establishment populism was the dominant factor in France and Canada, while neither of these dimensions was important in the U.S. The research was published in Frontiers in Political Science.

Populist leaders are political figures who claim to represent “the people” against a perceived corrupt, self-serving, or detached elite. They frame politics as a moral struggle between a virtuous majority and a small group of powerful insiders who are said to undermine the public interest.

Populism is not tied to a single ideology and can appear on both the left and the right of the political spectrum. Left-wing populist leaders typically focus on economic inequality, corporate power, and redistribution, portraying financial elites and large corporations as the main enemies of the people. Right-wing populist leaders more often emphasize national identity, cultural cohesion, immigration, and sovereignty, portraying outsiders or minorities as threats to the people’s way of life. Both forms rely heavily on emotional appeals, simple narratives, and direct communication styles.

Populist leaders tend to distrust or openly challenge established institutions such as courts, the media, or independent experts. They tend to personalize power, presenting themselves as the authentic voice of the people rather than as representatives within a system. While populism can mobilize disengaged voters and highlight real grievances, it can also weaken democratic norms by undermining pluralism and checks and balances. In essence, populist leaders differ in ideology but share a common style that simplifies politics into a conflict between “us” and “them.”

Study authors Anna Brigevich and Andrea Wagner wanted to explore the reasons people support populist politicians across the world. They propose that there are two distinct types of “populist citizens that come to support a populist strongman.” The first type are anti-establishment populists, individuals who are genuinely invested in enhancing democratic representation and restoring a voice to the “silent majority.” The second type are authoritarian populists, people who support populist leaders because these figures advocate for an exclusionary form of majority rule with the aim of marginalizing and punishing out-groups for their perceived lack of conformity to the values and views of the majority.

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The study authors invited 1,000 respondents per country from 9 countries to complete a survey. They were recruited from a set of panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. The authors used Census information to weight data by age and gender. Each group was formed in a way that makes it geographically representative (i.e., based on where participants are from within each country) of each of the countries.

The authors chose three groups of participating countries. France, Italy, the U.S., and Canada were selected because they have recently seen right-wing populism enter the mainstream. They note that, in the U.S., populism traces back to the 1890s, but this used to be predominantly left-wing populism. At the moment, the authors continue, right-wing populism is dominant, but left-wing populist figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are still notable.

The second group of countries were Spain, Brazil, and Argentina. In these countries, left-wing populism was traditionally more dominant and regarded as more inclusionary than their right-wing populism. These populists posit themselves as a voice for marginalized groups. The third group was post-communist Central European countries represented by Hungary and Poland, where populism is defined by right-wing nationalism and illiberalism.

However, the populist leaders considered in the study were all right-wing. They were Marine Le Pen (France), Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Donald Trump (U.S.), Pierre Poilievre (Canada), Santiago Abascal (Spain), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Javier Milei (Argentina), Viktor Orbán (Hungary), and Andrzej Duda (Poland).

The study authors tested participants’ endorsement of 6 different aspects of populist attitudes – anti-elitism (a belief that politics is dominated by politicians who protect the interests of the elites), people-centrism (people should have the final say in major political matters), majoritarianism (the will of the majority should always prevail), strongman (a belief that a strong leader in government is good for the country), elitism (politicians possess the knowledge to solve the current issues of the country), and nationalism (identification with and support of interests of one’s own nation, especially to the detriment of other nations).

Results showed that anti-elitism and people-centrism tended to be associated, forming a wider attitude the study authors called anti-establishment attitudes. Strongman, elitism, and nationalism constituted a wider attitude called authoritarian attitudes. Majoritarianism was a part of authoritarian beliefs in most countries, but in Argentina and Poland, it was predominantly part of anti-establishment attitudes.

The study authors then looked into which of these attitudes predicted the support for populist leaders of participating countries. Results showed that the appeal of populist leaders in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina was primarily driven by authoritarian attitudes. On the other hand, anti-establishment beliefs were the primary driver of support for the examined leaders in France and Canada. Neither of these groups of beliefs was associated with support for Donald Trump.

The study contributes to the scientific understanding of political attitudes. However, it should be noted that it solely focused on leaders generally seen as right-wing. Drivers of support for left-wing populist leaders might differ.

The paper, “Anti-establishment versus authoritarian populists and support for the strong(wo)man,” was authored by Anna Brigevich and Andrea Wagner.