A new study published in the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics has found that anti-democratic sentiments among white Americans, such as support for voting restrictions and the belief in widespread voter fraud, are strongly connected to racial attitudes, especially negative feelings towards minority groups. While the prevalence of these anti-democratic beliefs has not increased over the past decade, the study indicates they have become more interconnected and are now more closely tied to racial resentment and the perception that white people are losing status in society.
“Newspaper headlines and academics have signaled alarm over the state of America’s democracy in recent years, especially in the wake of President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results,” said study author Joshua Ferrer, a PhD candidate at UCLA who will be starting as an assistant professor at American University in the Fall.
“There has been particular concern over declining popular support for democratic laws and ideals, such as the peaceful transfer of power, a fully inclusive participatory democracy, and confidence in the integrity of our elections. We were interested in shedding light on the contours of these anti-democratic beliefs, including whether they have grown more prevalent in recent years, how interconnected they are, and the role that racial attitudes play in shaping them. We also wanted to connect four different beliefs together in one analysis: support for voting restrictions, opposition to voting expansions, belief in widespread voter fraud, and support for overturning democratic election results.”
To conduct their research, the researchers analyzed data from several large national surveys conducted between 2012 and 2022. These surveys included the Political Unrest Study, the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey, and the Survey of the Performance of American Elections. These surveys involved large samples of American adults and collected information on a wide range of political and social attitudes. For this particular study, the researchers focused specifically on responses from white Americans to understand the dynamics within this demographic group. They used survey weights to ensure that the results accurately reflected the views of the broader white adult population in the United States.
The researchers examined several measures of anti-democratic beliefs. These included support for policies that make voting more difficult, such as voter identification laws, and opposition to policies that expand voting access, like same-day voter registration and mail-in voting. They also looked at belief in widespread voter fraud and support for actions that would overturn the results of democratic elections. To measure racial attitudes, the study used questions assessing racial resentment, which reflects negative feelings towards minority groups based on the belief that they are demanding too much or gaining unfair advantages. They also measured anti-immigrant sentiment and the feeling that white people are experiencing discrimination. The study also considered attitudes reflecting positive feelings towards white people as a group.
In addition to analyzing survey data, the researchers also conducted an experiment within one of their surveys, the Political Unrest Study. In this experiment, participants were randomly assigned to read different descriptions of voting policies. Some participants read descriptions that were race-neutral, while others read descriptions that explicitly mentioned the racial implications of these policies, such as how limiting Sunday voting might affect Black communities or how expanding mail-in voting could benefit communities of color and immigrants. By comparing the responses of these different groups, the researchers could test whether highlighting the racial aspects of voting policies influenced white Americans’ support for or opposition to these policies.
The researchers found that the overall level of anti-democratic beliefs among white Americans has not significantly increased between 2012 and 2022. In fact, some measures of anti-democratic beliefs, such as opposition to voting expansions and belief in voter fraud, have even slightly decreased over this period. However, the study also found that different anti-democratic beliefs have become more closely linked together over time. This means that white Americans who hold one anti-democratic belief, such as support for voter identification laws, are now more likely to also hold other anti-democratic beliefs, such as believing in widespread voter fraud or opposing expanded voting options.
“We expected to find more evidence of increasing polarization in anti-democratic beliefs,” Ferrer told PsyPost. “While we found modest evidence of an increasing gap in anti-democratic beliefs between Democrats and Republicans, this trend is far overshadowed by the increasing connection between out-group racial attitudes and anti-democratic beliefs.”
The study found little evidence that positive feelings towards white people as a group were related to anti-democratic beliefs. But there was a strong connection between other racial attitudes and anti-democratic beliefs. White Americans who expressed higher levels of racial resentment, anti-immigrant sentiment, or who believed that white people face discrimination were significantly more likely to support voting restrictions, oppose voting expansions, believe in voter fraud, and support overturning election results. This relationship held even when considering other factors like political party affiliation, ideology, and support for Donald Trump.
“The most explanatory variable by far in explaining support for voting restrictions, opposition to voting expansions, belief in widespread voter fraud, and support for overturning democratic election results is favorability towards President Trump,” Ferrer noted. “However, it should be noted that the relationship between anti-democratic beliefs and racial attitudes persists even after accounting for Trump favorability, as well as partisanship, ideology, education, gender, age, income, religion, and conspiratorial beliefs. ”
Furthermore, the study found that racial attitudes have become increasingly important in explaining anti-democratic beliefs over the past decade. Racial resentment and the belief that white people are discriminated against were about twice as influential in shaping anti-democratic beliefs in 2020 compared to 2012.
The experimental part of the study provided further evidence for the role of racial attitudes. When voting policies were described in a way that explicitly highlighted their racial implications, white Americans showed increased support for voting restrictions and decreased support for voting expansions. This suggests that racial considerations can directly influence opinions on democratic processes and policies.
“On the one hand, anti-democratic beliefs have not grown more prevalent among white Americans, nor have they become increasingly polarized between the two parties,” Ferrer said. “This is cause for relief among some of the doomsday headlines signaling the end of American democracy.”
“On the other hand, we find a close connection between anti-democratic beliefs and attitudes towards other racial and ethnic groups. White Americans who are racially resentful towards Blacks, hold negative views of immigrants, and believe that whites are being discriminated against are especially likely to hold anti-democratic beliefs. Over the past decade, racial resentment and white racial grievance have grown particularly connected to anti-democratic beliefs.”
The researchers acknowledged some limitations to their study. Like all survey-based research, this study relies on self-reported attitudes and beliefs, which may not always perfectly reflect individuals’ true feelings or behaviors. The research also focused exclusively on non-Hispanic white Americans, meaning that the patterns observed may not apply to other racial or ethnic groups. Future research could examine a more diverse sample or explore in more detail the specific mechanisms through which racial attitudes influence anti-democratic beliefs.
Despite these limitations, this study provides important insights into the nature of anti-democratic beliefs in contemporary American politics. It highlights that these beliefs are not simply driven by partisan politics or fleeting political figures, but are deeply intertwined with racial attitudes and perceptions of social status.
“In order to preserve and strengthen America’s democracy, it is necessary to understand why some people have grown skeptical of its usefulness,” Ferrer said. “Especially with Trump’s return to the presidency and his policies attacking DEI initiatives, it is more important than ever that we confront the racial underpinnings of anti-democratic sentiments in order to build a more inclusive and resilient democracy. We believe we are witnessing important changes to how democratic beliefs are racialized, and will continue to explore the relationship between racial attitudes and support for democracy.”
The study, “Beyond the Trump Presidency: The Racial Underpinnings of White Americans’ Anti-Democratic Beliefs,” was authored by Joshua Ferrer and Christopher Palmisano.
