Researchers recently explored the range of factors that attract certain Americans to populist beliefs. Their study, published in Political Research Quarterly, suggests that support for populism isn’t tied to any single reason. The findings suggest that populist views are more closely associated with personal beliefs than with socioeconomic status or even traditional political affiliations.
The rise of populist leaders and movements globally has made understanding the roots of populism increasingly important. In the United States, populism is often linked to anti-elite sentiment, but the researchers wanted to explore what other factors might drive populist support.
The existing research largely focused on how broader social or economic issues, such as economic decline or job insecurity, influence populist attitudes. But the researchers aimed to uncover how individual factors like personal beliefs, identity, and political orientations contribute to the growing appeal of populist ideas.
“Recent events, such as the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit, spurred a renewed interest in studying populism,” said study author Adam M. Enders, an associate professor at the University of Louisville. “From our perspective, this resulted in a potential over-emphasis on the conspiratorial and authoritarian roots of populism, especially among the mass public. We wanted to take a broader view of populist sentiments in the mass public, considering different pathways that might lead to populist beliefs.”
To investigate this, the researchers used survey data from a representative sample of 1,003 U.S. adults. The survey, conducted in February 2021, gathered responses on a wide range of psychological, social, and political characteristics. Rather than looking for a single common path to populism, they used a technique called latent profile analysis, which allows researchers to identify groups of individuals who share similar patterns of responses across multiple characteristics. This approach helped them categorize different types of populist supporters based on shared traits.
The survey asked questions that tapped into beliefs about personal power and victimhood, trust in government, racial identity, Christian nationalism, and conspiracy thinking. These items were meant to capture attitudes that could potentially align with populist thinking, such as feelings of alienation from the political system or a strong attachment to certain group identities. By examining these responses, the researchers were able to identify different “profiles” or groups within the population, each showing unique patterns of populist support.
Their analysis revealed ten distinct categories of individuals, with four categories showing the highest levels of support for populist ideas. Each of these four categories was characterized by a unique combination of traits:
- The first group included individuals with high religiosity but only moderate beliefs in Christian nationalism, victimhood, and authoritarianism. People in this group tended to identify as liberals or with the Democratic Party.
- The second group comprised individuals who weren’t particularly religious but showed high levels of racial resentment and conspiratorial thinking. They tended to identify as conservative and Republican.
- The third group was characterized by high levels of conspiratorial thinking and a sense of personal victimhood, though they were not strongly religious or attached to any particular political ideology.
- The fourth group included people who scored high in several characteristics, including religiosity, Christian nationalism, conspiratorial thinking, and feelings of victimhood. However, they exhibited lower levels of racial resentment, despite having a strong sense of white identity.
These patterns suggest that support for populist ideas in the United States isn’t a single issue but rather an outcome of diverse personal beliefs and social attitudes. Some people support populism because they feel politically marginalized, while others are motivated by a sense of cultural or religious identity.
“The most important takeaway is that, from an individual-level perspective, there are multiple routes to populism––very different constellations of characteristics, attitudes, predispositions, and identities that may attract one to populist ideas,” Enders told PsyPost.
“For some, political orientations (e.g., right-leaning ideology and partisanship) may lead to populist beliefs; for others, religiosity, a sense of victimhood, conspiracy thinking, or racial resentment––or a combination thereof––might matter more. Despite a seeming increase in the (pejorative) application of the populism/populist label, the people who support populist ideas are quite heterogenous.”
Interestingly, the study found that factors like income, health insurance, and education level had less influence on populist attitudes than psychological and political beliefs did. This finding goes against the common assumption that populist support is primarily rooted in economic or class-based grievances. Instead, the study suggests that people’s beliefs and social identities are more predictive of populist support than their economic status.
However, the researchers acknowledged some limitations to their study. The survey was based on self-reported data, which can sometimes introduce biases. The study’s cross-sectional design also means that it can’t determine causality — for instance, whether populist beliefs lead to increased conspiracy thinking or vice versa.
Additionally, the findings are specific to the United States, and the factors that drive populism might differ in other countries. Future research could explore these pathways to populism in other sociopolitical contexts or examine how these profiles might shift over time in response to changing social and political dynamics.
The study, “The Disparate Correlates of Populist Support in the United States,” was authored by Miles T. Armaly and Adam M. Enders.
