New research provides evidence that fame-seeking mass shooters tend to diversify their attacks in order to draw public attention. The new findings provide insights into the characteristics of mass shootings, the motivations of perpetrators, and the relationship between fame-seeking behavior and the features of the shootings. The study is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Previously, it was commonly believed that the notoriety of mass shooters was primarily driven by the number of people they killed (lethality). However, this study challenges that notion and suggests that “surprise” plays a crucial role in creating fame for mass shooters, even when considering the level of lethality.
“Mass shootings are a major issue in American reality, affecting people independently of their background or identity, myself included. Fame-seeking mass shooters are the most lethal ones and understanding the way they think and operate could help partially address this phenomenon, through education and policy,” explained study author Maurizio Porfiri, NYU Tandon Institute Professor and director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress.
To conduct the study, the researchers collected data on 189 mass shootings that occurred between August 1966 and April 2021. The data was obtained from three sources: the Washington Post, the Violence Project, and Mother Jones. These sources define mass shootings as attacks carried out with firearms, usually by a lone shooter, where four or more people are killed, excluding the perpetrator(s).
To determine fame-seeking shooters, the researchers followed criteria based on evidence from the shooters’ words and actions before, during, and after the incident, suicide notes, manifestos, online profiles, and police evidence. The criteria were established by previous studies and were used to classify fame-seeking mass shootings.
To measure fame, the researchers relied on Wikipedia traffic data for mass shootings and shooters. They calculated fame as the median number of daily visits to the Wikipedia pages related to the shootings. The most famous shootings based on this measure were the 1999 Columbine High School shooting, the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, and the 2017 Las Vegas Strip massacre.
The researchers also conducted a surprisal analysis to determine if fame-seeking shooters tend to diversify their attacks. Surprisal is an information-theoretic measure that quantifies the amount of information gained by observing an outcome. The surprisal values were computed for four features: target group, shooting location, level of security, and leakage (any information or signs that might have been communicated prior to the mass shooting).
The results showed that attacks carried out by fame-seeking mass shooters were approximately three times more surprising than those carried out by non-fame-seeking shooters. This indicates that fame-seeking shooters deliberately planned and executed their attacks in a manner that stood out and deviated significantly from previous incidents.
“We elucidate the modus operandi of mass shooters driven by a desire for infamy and discover a pattern of deviation from the ‘norm’ in their attacks. This underscores the significance of two crucial factors: red flag laws and responsible media coverage,” Porfiri told PsyPost.
“Firstly, it is imperative to advocate for red flag laws, even when a mass shooting seems against all odds. Secondly, the media’s disclosure of specific information about past mass shootings inadvertently provides aspiring fame-seekers with a blueprint to work against. We urge further investigation into the most effective approach for disseminating news about mass shootings in accordance with the principles of the no-notoriety movement.”
Additionally, the researchers found that there was a correlation between fame and the number of injured victims as well as the number of fatalities.
“In various domains and disciplines, fame is typically achieved through success,” Porfiri said. “In the case of mass shootings, an unsettling, yet expected, correlation emerges: the fame of mass shootings is directly linked to the degree of lethality they inflict. However, as a main element of novelty in our study, we discovered that the element of surprise in a mass shooting actually amplifies its level of notoriety. This somehow counterintuitive finding introduces intriguing new perspectives to the examination of fame.”
The study has some limitations, such as the inability to consider fine details of each incident and incomplete Wikipedia coverage of mass shootings.
“Many fame-seeking mass shooters use theatrics to make a spectacle out of their attacks,” Porfiri told PsyPost. “For example, they might wear a unique outfit or style their hair differently. Due to both practical and statistical considerations, our analysis was limited to shooters’ choice of a location, target population, and weapons, and it could not capture finer details that may further contribute to shooters’ fame.”
“Since there are a myriad of methods shooters can adopt to distinguish themselves from past shooters, their predictability remains limited. It is extremely important to educate practitioners and the general public about risks and warning signs of potential mass shooters.”
The findings of the study have implications for law enforcement and prevention efforts. Recognizing the tendency of fame-seeking shooters to diversify their attacks might help prevent future tragedies.
“Compared to other public health crises, gun violence is in dire need of funding (federal, state, or private) to spearhead interdisciplinary research that could support effective, scientifically backed policy-making,” Porfiri said. “A study like ours is just a first step in this direction, much more work is needed to help our communities are torn by gun violence.”
The study, “Fame through surprise: How fame-seeking mass shooters diversify their attacks“, was authored by Rayan Succar, Roni Barak Ventura, Maxim Belykh, Sihan Wei, and Maurizio Porfiri.
