Fathers who fear divorce are more likely to develop distrust in political institutions

A recent study published in Acta Sociologica suggests that partnered fathers who worry about an impending divorce tend to develop greater distrust in political institutions over time. The research indicates that the subjective fear of family instability can spill over into a broader dissatisfaction with government actors. These findings highlight a unique source of political disaffection among men, shifting the focus away from traditional economic explanations.

Staffan Kumlin conducted this study to better understand the growing gender differences in political orientations across Western democracies. Kumlin is a professor and the Head of PhD Studies in Political Science at the University of Oslo. He is also the author of the book Election Campaigns and Welfare State Change: Democratic Linkage and Leadership Under Pressure, published by Oxford University Press.

Kumlin was motivated by the intensified debate about growing political gender gaps in Western societies, specifically regarding support for populist parties and general trust in mainstream institutions. “We currently lack full explanations of why these gaps seem to be growing, and especially why they are often larger among younger and to some extent middle-aged individuals,” Kumlin explained. He noted that while economic status anxiety and cultural conservatism play a role, they cannot fully explain the situation at hand.

To find missing pieces to this puzzle, Kumlin shifted his attention away from the labor market and cultural debates to look at the family domain. Sociologists note that separation is rarely a sudden event, but rather a long period of turbulence where psychological distress builds up. Kumlin suspected that these subjective worries might have political consequences even before a physical or legal split occurs.

Because modern welfare states take on significant responsibility for citizen well-being, people experiencing personal distress often respond with diffuse political frustration. When individuals lack precise information about which government agency to blame for their struggles, their personal worries tend to manifest as a generalized distrust in the democratic system. Kumlin explored two potential reasons for why relationship instability might trigger this reaction, paying special attention to how these effects might differ by gender.

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The first idea involves the loss of political communication between partners. Because women in many Western countries now tend to vote more and report higher levels of political trust, men in deteriorating relationships might lose the positive civic influence of their partners. This loss of cross-gender socialization could theoretically lead to lower political trust among men.

The second idea relies on the different realities men and women face after a separation. Women typically experience steeper economic declines following a divorce, largely because of existing income disparities. Yet, previous research suggests women are generally less likely to alter their political views based on personal economic grievances.

Men frequently face profound social exclusion and a reduced role in parenting, as children often spend more time with their mothers after a split. Because past data suggests men react very negatively to this specific loss of family involvement, Kumlin predicted that the fear of divorce would generate the strongest political distrust among fathers.

To test these ideas, Kumlin used data from a Norwegian survey that repeatedly interviewed the same group of people over three years. This type of research design is known as a longitudinal panel study, which allows scientists to observe how an individual’s attitudes change over time. The data was collected in three waves during 2014, 2015, and 2017.

The initial sample included 5,420 participants. The second wave retained many of these individuals while adding new ones, totaling 5,008 respondents, and the final wave included 1,560 individuals who had participated previously. The respondents were adults aged eighteen to seventy-five, providing a broad representation of the Norwegian population across different life stages.

The survey asked participants how likely they thought they were to separate from their partner in the next twelve months. The respondents chose from a four-point scale ranging from not at all likely to very likely. Kumlin also accounted for other subjective worries, such as the perceived risk of poverty, unemployment, or poor health, to ensure he was isolating the specific effect of relationship instability.

Most variation in the relationship answers was between those who perceived zero risk and those who perceived a mild risk. Very few participants felt absolutely certain a legal divorce was imminent. To measure political distrust, the study used an index combining four survey items where participants rated their trust in political parties, the national parliament, the national government, and their local city council.

To evaluate the findings, Kumlin used statistical models designed to separate short-term emotional reactions from long-term changes in attitude. The analysis revealed that perceived divorce risk did not have a uniform effect on all respondents. There was no widespread negative impact on political trust among partnered women, nor among partnered men without children.

The other subjective worries about health or employment also did not produce gendered differences in political trust. Instead, the data provides evidence that the political consequences of relationship instability are highly specific to fathers. Kumlin found that persistent worry about divorce offset the standard political trust development usually seen in this demographic.

Men in stable relationships who have children and a high level of education typically develop greater political trust as the years pass. However, when these highly educated fathers perceived a risk of divorce, this positive trend vanished. For fathers with lower levels of education, the passing of another year with relationship anxiety actively drove their political trust downward.

“The link between persistently perceived divorce risk and loss of political trust over time is significant and rather robust among partnered men with kids,” Kumlin told PsyPost. He added that while the link is moderately strong at best, its very existence is revealing because it shows how subjective worries can matter politically. He emphasized that it does not take a legally and physically finalized separation for the underlying thought processes to surface.

Kumlin also checked to see if this political distrust was simply a byproduct of losing faith in humanity generally. He found that the decline in political trust occurred independently of generalized social trust. This suggests that the fathers were not just becoming cynical about people in general, but were developing a specific frustration with democratic institutions.

While the study offers a novel perspective on political behavior, it comes with limitations. The research relies on observational survey data, meaning it tracks natural changes in a population but cannot definitively prove cause and effect. There is a possibility that unmeasured factors, such as underlying personality traits, might simultaneously cause a person to worry about their marriage and distrust the government.

Future research could expand on these findings by tracking families over a longer period with more survey waves. Researchers might also investigate the exact cognitive leaps men make between family instability and government actors. Ultimately, Kumlin hopes the public recognizes that “inclusion into family life, care tasks, and parental involvement can matter for democratic inclusion and trust, and especially so among men.”

The study, “Divorce risk and political distrust: Gendered consequences of couple instability,” was authored by Staffan Kumlin.