Why did so many Trump supporters continue to back him after his claims of election fraud in 2020 were disproven? A study published in PS: Political Science & Politics suggests that a deep psychological bond with the former president—referred to as “identity fusion”—played a key role in shaping their beliefs and bolstering their loyalty, even as new controversies and criminal charges emerged.
The researchers, Philip Moniz of Northeastern University and William B. Swann of the University of Texas at Austin, aimed to understand why many Trump supporters remained loyal despite his repeated promotion of falsehoods about the election and subsequent criminal charges. Trump’s allegations of voter fraud, which were widely debunked, had far-reaching consequences, including the January 6 Capitol riot and ongoing polarization within the United States. The study sought to investigate how identity fusion could sustain belief in misinformation and shape political attitudes.
“As Trump’s legal cases began to pile up in the run-up to the Republican presidential primary in 2024, we, like many others, were interested in what effect, if any, his legal trouble would have on his voters’ support,” Moniz explained. “We wondered if a conviction in particular, which would make him the first-ever convicted felon to run on a major-party ticket, would sour voters on him. We suspected that steadfast commitment to Trump between 2020 and 2024 might be driven by the fusion of voters’ identities with Trump.”
To explore these dynamics, the researchers conducted a three-wave panel survey over three years, from November 2020 to March 2024. The study included 130 self-identified Trump voters recruited through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform. Participants completed surveys at three key points: shortly after the 2020 election, in early 2021 following the Capitol riot, and three years later during the 2024 presidential primary season.
The surveys measured identity fusion with Trump using statements such as “I have a deep emotional bond with Donald Trump” and “I make Donald Trump strong.” Belief in election fraud claims was assessed through agreement with statements like “Donald Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election.” Participants also shared their views on Trump’s criminal indictments and their support for his policy proposals, including controversial measures such as mass deportations and eliminating civil service protections for federal employees.
The researchers found a strong, reciprocal relationship between identity fusion and belief in election fraud claims. Participants who were more fused with Trump before the 2020 election were significantly more likely to adopt his narrative of voter fraud in the years that followed. Believing these claims, in turn, deepened their emotional bond with Trump, creating a feedback loop that reinforced loyalty and acceptance of his rhetoric.
This dynamic had broader consequences for participants’ attitudes. Those who believed the election fraud claims were more likely to downplay Trump’s criminal charges, viewing them as politically motivated rather than legitimate. They were also more supportive of Trump’s policy agenda, including proposals widely criticized as undemocratic. The findings suggest that belief in misinformation about the election served as a foundation for embracing other pro-Trump narratives, further insulating his supporters from challenges to his credibility.
“Our study showed that those who stuck with Trump through thick and thin—his loss in 2020 and subsequent criminal indictments—were those whose sense of self was more strongly fused to Trump early on, before the Capitol insurrection of January 6, 2021,” Moniz told PsyPost. “It’s partly an identity-driven process. It’s not only about their dislike of Democrats or beliefs about the value of democracy.”
“We also found that Trump’s ‘big lie’ that the 2020 election was rigged played a highly influential role. The more his supporters believed them in 2021, the more they rallied around Trump in the three years that followed. Their identities became more fused with Trump, and their support for his agenda grew, including policies like deporting all undocumented immigrants.”
Interestingly, the researchers found that belief in election fraud claims was a stronger predictor of political attitudes than other factors, such as hostility toward Democrats or support for the January 6 insurrection.
“We were surprised just how strong a role belief in these claims played in the minds of our sample’s Trump supporters,” Moniz said. “It was by far the most powerful predictor, among the variables we measured, of support for Trump’s policy agenda and his narrative of victimhood. That sense of victimhood at the hands of the political system seems to have done a lot to pave the way for believing Trump’s narrative and rhetoric on other things.”
The findings highlight the powerful role of identity fusion in shaping political beliefs and behaviors. But as with all research, there are limitations.
The sample size was relatively small, and the participants were not representative of all Trump supporters or the broader electorate. The sample was predominantly white, with a slightly higher level of education than the general Republican voter base. “We cannot say the processes we document are definitively representative of the population, but they are characteristic of what’s going on in a more educated, more politically interested subset of voters,” Moniz noted. Future research could address these limitations by using larger, more representative samples and examining how identity fusion interacts with misinformation in other political contexts.
The study also raises questions about the broader psychological processes at play. For example, how does belief in one false claim make individuals more likely to accept additional misinformation? Understanding this “snowball effect” could help researchers develop strategies to counteract the spread of falsehoods and promote critical thinking among voters.
“This project really emphasized to me the power of belief in certain misinformation, in this case the ‘big lie,’ to make it easier to make other rhetoric more believable,” Moniz said. “It’s like, once you get someone to believe one big thing, it may become easier to make them believe other, maybe even bigger things. I’d like to look into that process further—how it works, and why.”
The study, “The Power of Trump’s Big Lie: Identity Fusion, Internalizing Misinformation, and Support for Trump,” was published January 13, 2025.
