One holiday sees a massive spike in emergency contraception sales, and it isn’t Valentine’s Day

Research published in the BMJ has revealed that retail sales of emergency contraception rise sharply after the New Year holiday in the United States. The holiday was found to be linked to a surge in demand for emergency contraception, suggesting higher rates of unprotected sex compared with other times of the year—even more than Valentine’s Day.

Unprotected sex has long been recognised as a public health concern due to unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. Previous research shows that alcohol use, increased social activity, and limited access to contraception can all influence whether people practice safe sex. These factors tend to fluctuate throughout the year, and certain holidays may bring them together. Emergency contraception, which can prevent pregnancy after unprotected sex, offers researchers a way to indirectly measure when these risks may be higher.

Brandon Wagner (Texas Tech University) and Kelly Cleland (American Society for Emergency Contraception) sought to investigate if New Year’s Eve—a holiday commonly associated with parties, alcohol consumption, and romantic expectations—was followed by an increase in emergency contraception sales. They also wanted to compare this with other holidays that might share similar features, such as Valentine’s Day or St. Patrick’s Day.

To investigate, the team analysed weekly sales data for over-the-counter emergency contraception pills (levonorgestrel) across the United States from 2016 to 2022. The dataset covered 362 weeks of sales from traditional “brick and mortar” retailers, including grocery stores, drug stores, and mass merchandisers. Using statistical models, they compared sales in weeks following holidays with sales during non-holiday weeks.

The results showed a clear pattern. In the week after the New Year holiday, sales of emergency contraception rose by about 0.63 additional units per 1,000 women of reproductive age (15–44). Based on US population estimates, this equated to roughly 41,000 extra units sold in the first week of 2022 alone compared with what would hypothetically occur without the holiday.

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While other holidays also showed increases, none matched the New Year. Sales rose after Valentine’s Day, but only about half as much as after the New Year holiday. Smaller increases followed St. Patrick’s Day and Independence Day. By contrast, holidays not typically associated with heightened sexual activity or alcohol consumption—such as Easter, Mother’s Day, and Father’s Day—showed no significant change in emergency contraception sales.

The researchers say the spike after the New Year likely reflects a combination of factors: more sexual activity, lower contraception vigilance due to alcohol consumption, increased risk of sexual assault, and limited access to contraceptives due to holiday retail closures. Together, these conditions may make New Year’s Eve uniquely associated with unprotected sex.

“More than ever, emergency contraception is a critically important option for people in the US, particularly those living in regions with bans or severe restrictions on abortion. Although this annual spike in sales might seem humorous, it is indicative of unmet contraceptive need that calls for further attention,” Wagner and Cleland noted.

However, the study has important limitations. Sales data do not necessarily reflect actual use of emergency contraception, and the figures exclude purchases made online, in independent pharmacies, or through clinics. The findings also apply only to the United States, meaning patterns could differ in countries with different healthcare systems or cultural practices.

The study, “Retail demand for emergency contraception in United States following New Year holiday: time series study,” was authored by Brandon Wagner and Kelly Cleland.