Study finds societal affluence is linked to wider gender gaps in STEM graduation

As countries become wealthier, the gender gap in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduation tends to grow larger. This finding was published in Sex Roles.

Women are underrepresented in many STEM fields around the world, and one influential explanation for this pattern has been the Gender-Equality Paradox, which proposes that gender differences in STEM are actually larger in more gender-equal societies.

More recent research has questioned whether this pattern actually reflects gender equality itself. Instead, it may arise because more gender-equal countries also tend to be wealthier and share other historical and cultural characteristics. These criticisms have prompted researchers to reconsider whether societal affluence, rather than gender equality, may play a more direct role in shaping educational choices.

Wilfred Uunk and Mingming Li examined whether changes in a country’s level of economic prosperity are associated with changes in the gender gap in STEM graduation over time. Rather than relying on comparisons between countries at a single point in time, they investigated whether increases in national wealth within the same country predicted changes in men’s and women’s likelihood of graduating from STEM programs.

The researchers conducted a large-scale longitudinal analysis using publicly available national education data. They analyzed UNESCO records covering 113 countries over a 25-year period (1999-2023). After excluding countries with incomplete or inconsistent educational records, the final dataset consisted of 1,124 country-year observations, with the longitudinal analyses including 1,013 country-years after applying a four-year lag between national economic conditions and graduation outcomes. The researchers measured societal affluence using World Bank estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity.

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The researchers calculated the odds that women and men graduated in STEM rather than non-STEM fields. STEM included engineering, information and communication technology (ICT), and natural sciences, while non-STEM included fields such as business, education, health, humanities, agriculture, services, and social sciences. They also examined individual STEM disciplines separately and compared emerging and advanced economies.

To isolate the effects of changing economic conditions, the analyses accounted for stable country characteristics and overall historical trends, allowing the researchers to determine whether increases in national affluence within countries predicted subsequent changes in STEM graduation patterns.

Uunk and Li found that increases in societal affluence were associated with larger gender gaps in STEM graduation. As countries became wealthier over time, men became increasingly more likely than women to graduate from STEM programs. This relationship was observed both in cross-sectional comparisons between countries and in longitudinal analyses following changes within countries across many years.

Notably, this association was observed in both emerging and advanced economies, suggesting that the pattern is not limited to highly developed countries.

The findings also challenged several existing theories about why these patterns occur. Although the researchers expected wealthier societies might reduce women’s participation in STEM, the stronger effect actually came from increases in men’s STEM graduation rather than substantial declines among women. The size of the association also differed across fields of study, with the strongest effects appearing in engineering and ICT, while natural sciences showed much weaker relationships.

Additional robustness analyses using different statistical specifications, alternative time lags, broader definitions of STEM, and controls for national gender equality all produced similar overall conclusions, strengthening confidence in these findings.

These results are based on national aggregate graduation data rather than individual-level decisions, meaning the analyses cannot directly identify the personal psychological or social mechanisms that lead individuals to choose particular fields of study. As well, graduation patterns cannot fully distinguish whether economic conditions primarily influence students’ initial choice of major, their persistence in those programs, or both.

Overall, the findings suggest that growing societal affluence is linked to wider gender differences in STEM graduation across the world, highlighting economic prosperity as an important factor in understanding this persistent gender gap.

The research, “Does Societal Affluence Increase the Gender Gap in STEM Graduation? A Longitudinal Assessment,” was authored by Wilfred Uunk and Mingming Li.