Trust in the federal government plays a key role in shaping Republicans’ attitudes toward gun control, according to a new study published in Political Behavior. The findings indicate that Republicans who trust the government are much more likely to back gun control reforms. Notably, the research also highlights that partisanship is a stronger influence than political ideology when it comes to shaping Americans’ views on gun control policies, suggesting that attitudes toward gun reform are more driven by party loyalty and cues from political leaders than by deeply held ideological beliefs.
Gun violence in the United States is a major public health and safety concern, with the country experiencing far higher rates of firearm-related deaths, injuries, and mass shootings compared to other developed nations. This issue spans various forms of violence, including homicides, suicides, accidental shootings, and domestic violence incidents.
Mass shootings, particularly in schools, public spaces, and workplaces, have intensified demands for reforms such as universal background checks, bans on assault weapons, and enhanced mental health services. However, legal frameworks like the Second Amendment, which protects the right to bear arms, have fueled polarized debates. While some advocate for stricter gun regulations to curb violence, others emphasize individual freedoms and the right to self-defense.
Previous research has consistently shown that Democrats tend to support gun control measures more strongly than Republicans, who are generally more inclined to expand gun rights. However, the new study sought to examine whether trust in the government influences these partisan divides, particularly since Republicans are often more skeptical of government intervention.
“We became interested topic because of the ongoing debates in the United States about gun reform, which often appear highly polarized along partisan lines,” said study author Michael A. Hansen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Turku and co-author of Political Entrepreneurship in the Age of Dealignment.
“We wanted to explore whether trust in the federal government affects support for gun reform differently among Republicans and Democrats, whether that relationship was different than between trust and political ideology, and what this could mean for advancing gun control policies.”
To investigate this question, the researchers used data from the 2022 Cooperative Election Study, a large national survey administered by YouGov. The study included responses from over 50,000 Americans, surveyed before and after the 2022 U.S. midterm elections.
Participants were asked about their support for various gun control and gun rights expansion proposals. Three gun control measures were examined: banning assault rifles, providing federal funding to remove guns from individuals who may pose a threat, and improving background checks for prospective gun buyers under the age of 21. The three gun rights expansion proposals included prohibiting the publication of gun owners’ names and addresses, making it easier to obtain concealed-carry permits, and allowing teachers to carry guns in schools.
Respondents also answered questions about their level of trust in the federal government, which was measured on a four-point scale ranging from “no trust at all” to “a great deal of trust.” Additionally, participants were asked about their partisan identification (whether they identified as Democrats, Republicans, or Independents) and their political ideology (measured on a scale from very liberal to very conservative). The researchers then used statistical models to examine how trust in the government and partisan identification interacted to influence support for gun reforms.
The findings of the study revealed stark differences between Republicans and Democrats in how trust in the federal government affected their views on gun reform. For Republicans, trust in the government had a dramatic impact on their support for both gun control and gun rights expansion. Republicans with low trust in the government were much more likely to oppose gun control measures and support expanding gun rights.
However, as trust in the government increased, Republicans became significantly more likely to support gun control proposals and less likely to favor expanding gun rights. For instance, a Republican with no trust in the government had a predicted probability of only 20% for supporting an assault rifle ban, while a Republican with a high level of trust had a 70% probability of supporting such a ban.
“Trust in the federal government plays a critical role in shaping Republicans’ attitudes toward gun reform,” Hansen told PsyPost. “Our study found that as Republicans’ trust in the government increases, so does their support for gun control measures, such as banning assault rifles or improving background checks, while their support for gun rights expansions decreases. These findings suggest that efforts to build trust in government institutions could influence gun policy attitudes, particularly among Republicans.”
In contrast, trust in the federal government had almost no effect on Democrats’ views toward gun reform. Democrats consistently supported gun control measures, such as banning assault rifles and improving background checks, regardless of their level of trust in the government. This suggests that Democrats’ views on gun reform are less influenced by their attitudes toward the government and more driven by other factors, such as their party’s platform or personal beliefs about gun violence.
The researchers also tested whether political ideology (how liberal or conservative a person is) played a role in shaping views on gun reform, but they found that partisanship was a much stronger predictor than ideology. While political ideology was still related to views on gun reform, it had a smaller impact than whether a person identified as a Democrat or Republican. This finding supports the idea that gun reform is primarily a partisan issue, shaped by party affiliation and the cues individuals receive from political leaders and organizations.
“What surprised us the most was how little political ideology influenced attitudes toward gun reform,” Hansen said. “While ideology is often assumed to be a major driver of opinions on such issues, our findings showed that it played a relatively minor role. Instead, trust in the federal government was a much more substantial predictor, particularly among Republicans.”
“The result suggests that if partisan messengers, such as political leaders or influential figures within the Republican party, shift their stance on gun reform, it could lead to broader changes in public attitudes. By focusing on changing the attitudes of these partisan messengers, there may be a pathway to increasing support for gun control measures like banning assault rifles or improving background checks.”
But as with all research, there are some caveats. “One caveat is that our study relies on one year of survey data, which captures public sentiment at a specific point in time,” Hansen noted. “Trust in government can fluctuate due to political events, so the results may vary in different contexts. Additionally, our analysis focuses on six gun reform proposals, and future research should explore more nuanced reform suggestions.”
Nevertheless, the findings from this study have important implications for policymakers and advocates working to pass gun reform legislation.
“The findings suggest that advocates of gun reform should consider not just the policies they are promoting but also how they frame these issues in relation to trust in government,” Hansen explained. “Building institutional trust might be a key strategy for gaining broader support for reforms, particularly from groups that are typically more resistant to gun control.”
The study, “Support for Gun Reform in the United States: The Interactive Relationship Between Partisanship and Trust in the Federal Government,” was authored by Michael A. Hansen and Mila Seppälä.
