Trust and turbines: how conspiratorial thinking and wind farm opposition fuel each other

A generalized tendency to believe in secret plots can predict whether someone will oppose the construction of a local wind farm months later. Likewise, coming to oppose that local wind farm can deepen a person’s general conspiratorial worldview over time. These mutually reinforcing perspectives can potentially stall the transition to renewable energy sources if community concerns go unaddressed. The research was recently published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology.

Transitioning to renewable energy often relies heavily on the expansion of onshore wind power. Local communities, however, frequently resist the construction of new turbines in their neighborhoods. Residents might worry about changes to the landscape, the potential impact on local wildlife, or the economic fairness of the development. Without community acceptance, ambitious national goals to mitigate climate change can face severe delays.

Previous research indicated that people with a high propensity to believe in conspiracy theories were more likely to oppose local wind farms. A conspiracy mentality is a general worldview characterized by the assumption that secretive, malevolent groups are orchestrating societal events behind the scenes. This is different from believing in a single, specific theory, like the idea that the moon landing was faked. It represents a baseline assumption that the public is constantly being deceived.

People with a high conspiracy mentality tend to view political and scientific authorities as inherently corrupt or deceitful. Because these authorities are the primary advocates for wind energy expansion, a high baseline level of distrust might readily translate into skepticism about nearby renewable energy projects.

Kevin Winter, a researcher at the University of Hohenheim, and his colleagues wanted to understand the timing of this relationship. Past studies only captured a single snapshot in time. A single snapshot makes it impossible to tell whether a conspiratorial worldview leads to wind farm opposition, or if the opposition develops first. To find out, Winter worked with Lotte Pummerer, Timo von Oertzen, Matthew J. Hornsey, and Kai Sassenberg to track changes in people’s views over an extended period.

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Knowing which attitude comes first helps public policy planners design better ways to interact with communities. If a conspiracy mentality comes first, authorities might need to focus on building basic epistemic trust before proposing new infrastructure. Epistemic trust refers to a person’s willingness to believe that the information provided by experts and institutions is accurate and well-intentioned. If opposition to the wind farm comes first, planners might instead need to focus on local economic benefits and fair planning procedures.

The research team set up a longitudinal survey, questioning the same group of German adults at three separate points in time. Each survey wave took place about four months apart, starting in late 2022. By revisiting the same individuals repeatedly, the researchers could look for patterns indicating that a shift in one specific attitude preceded a shift in another.

Out of the original group, 297 participants completed all three rounds of surveys. The questionnaires asked participants to rate their general attitudes toward the construction of wind farms near their hometowns using a standard rating scale. The surveys also measured their overall conspiracy mentality by asking how strongly they agreed with statements asserting that the public is kept in the dark regarding important global events. Participants also indicated their willingness to vote in favor of a local turbine in a hypothetical referendum.

To round out their data, the researchers also measured beliefs in specific conspiracy theories about wind energy. They asked participants if they agreed with statements suggesting that the government intentionally withholds information about the dangers of wind power. Specific narratives often circulate online, claiming that energy companies cover up the negative health impacts of living near turbines or exaggerate the environmental benefits to secure public funding.

The researchers analyzed the data to see how temporary shifts in a person’s mindset affected their views months later. They used a statistical model that separates a person’s stable, long-term traits from their short-term fluctuations in attitude. Human beliefs are generally stable, meaning someone who opposes a wind turbine in January will likely still oppose it in May. By controlling for these stable characteristics, the team could look at the less obvious deviations in personal perspectives.

This procedure allowed the team to see exactly what happened when a participant’s level of suspicion or opposition rose slightly above their own normal baseline. They found that when a person’s conspiracy mentality increased above their typical baseline, they were likely to express more negative attitudes toward local wind farms in the next survey. A generalized suspicion of hidden agendas appears to precede the rejection of specific local initiatives. People who develop a heavier distrust of authorities might naturally assume that government and industry representatives are hiding the true costs or dangers of a proposed energy project.

The data also revealed a pattern working in the opposite direction. When participants reported an increase in negative feelings toward nearby wind farms, they subsequently showed a higher overall conspiracy mentality four months later. This second pathway actually showed a slightly stronger mathematical relationship than the first. Becoming opposed to a local project seems to foster a broader suspicion of society’s institutions.

This dynamic suggests that holding a negative view about a local energy project might prompt people to actively seek out information that justifies their resistance. During this motivated search, they might encounter specific conspiracy theories regarding wind turbines spread by influential figures or online groups. Absorbing these targeted concepts could then broaden into a more generalized suspicion of government and industry. Ultimately, the two mindsets appear to feed into one another back and forth over time, creating a cycle of increasing distrust and policy resistance.

The research team noted a few limitations restricting how broadly these conclusions can be applied. The study relied solely on self-reported survey answers, meaning participants were rating their own attitudes rather than demonstrating them through observable actions. It also only tracked changes over relatively short four-month intervals, which might not capture how these beliefs evolve over the span of a multi-year infrastructure project.

Additionally, the participants were entirely from Germany, a country that was experiencing intense debates about energy policy during the study period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had recently disrupted natural gas supplies, making domestic energy production and political trust highly polarized topics across the nation. Future studies will need to recruit larger numbers of participants from diverse geographic regions to see if these patterns hold steady in different cultural contexts.

It is also possible that a deeper, underlying trait might be the root cause driving both wind farm opposition and conspiracy beliefs simultaneously. A general disposition to distrust others, for example, could make someone highly susceptible to both phenomena. Expanding the research focus to include broad personality traits could help untangle these intertwined psychological patterns.

If left unchecked, this reinforcing cycle between skepticism of authorities and opposition to renewable energy could slow down efforts to combat climate change. The researchers suggest that local governments can help break the cycle by increasing transparency and encouraging public participation early in the planning process for new wind farms. Building trust directly with local residents might leave less room for secretive suspicions to take root and spread.

The study, “Conspiracy belief and opposition to wind farms: A longitudinal study,” was authored by Kevin Winter, Lotte Pummerer, Timo von Oertzen, Matthew J. Hornsey, and Kai Sassenberg.