Uncertainty about immigration intensifies nationalist sentiments

In a recent study published in the Journal of Social and Political Psychology, researchers discovered a link between uncertainty related to immigration and nationalist attitudes among Portuguese citizens. The findings provide evidence that when individuals are unsure about immigration, they often perceive it as a threat to their nation’s resources, which in turn is linked to nationalist attitudes and support for anti-immigration policies.

The surge in global migration, with the migrant population worldwide reaching over 272 million in 2019, has sparked a rise in nationalist sentiments across Europe. Such sentiments challenge the European Union’s goals of social diversity and inclusiveness and call into question the effectiveness of integration policies.

Portugal, despite being ranked as one of the most inclusive countries for migrants, has not been immune to these trends. The emergence of an extreme right-wing, anti-immigration party as a significant political force in Portugal post-2019 indicates a shift towards more nationalist attitudes.

This situation prompted researchers to investigate the psychological mechanisms underlying such attitudes, particularly the role of uncertainty in shaping perceptions of threat and nationalist sentiments.

“Various European countries have seen a great increase in support for radical right- wing anti-immigration political parties since the 1990’s, but particularly after the economic crisis of 2008,” explained study author Sara G. Alves, a doctoral candidate in psychology at the University of Porto.

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“Additionally, in 2015, the ‘refugee crisis’ brought the issue of refugee admission and immigration to the forefront of political debate and, in 2016, the UK left the EU to regain control of its borders. Indeed, it seems that a growing share of the host population of these countries seem to be concerned about immigration and radical right-wing politicians took advantage of these concerns in order to gain power.”

“This was (and still is) concerning to me for two reasons: 1) these radical right-wing politicians present immigrants as threatening the nation’s culture and resources, which may increase the legitimacy of discriminating immigrants, and 2) these radical right-wing parties can be dangerous for democracy,” Alves said.

“Considering all this, I became interested in studying the determinants of the support for nationalism and anti-immigration policies. Given how the issue of immigration is fraught with uncertainties and how the population is very uninformed about immigration in general, I was interested in exploring the impact uncertainty about immigration may have on the population, namely on its attitudes about immigration and nationalist sentiments.”

Alves and her colleagues conducted two studies to understand how uncertainty related to immigration influences nationalist attitudes. They hypothesized that both realistic threats (concerns about material resources) and symbolic threats (concerns about national identity) mediate the relationship between uncertainty and nationalist attitudes.

In the first study, the researchers collected data from a sample of 169 Portuguese citizens through an online questionnaire. The measures included items assessing feelings of uncertainty and fear related to the entry of immigrants, perceptions of immigrants’ contribution to or detriment from the country (realistic threat), and the impact of immigration on Portuguese culture (symbolic threat). Additionally, participants rated their agreement with statements reflecting national superiority and support for stricter immigration controls.

The researchers found a positive correlation between the uncertainty experienced by participants about immigration and their perceptions of both realistic and symbolic threats. These perceived threats were, in turn, positively associated with stronger nationalist attitudes, including a belief in the nation’s superiority and support for anti-immigration laws.

“Uncertainty can be extremely aversive and, in this intergroup context, increases the need to protect the nation and the national group from the threats these ‘outsiders’ supposedly pose,” Alves told PsyPost. “This need seems to be met by exclusionary political actions, i.e. supporting policies and political parties with a strict approach to immigration.”

Building on these insights, the second study aimed to directly manipulate immigration-related uncertainty to assess its causal effects on the same set of variables. The study involved 309 Portuguese citizens who were randomly assigned to either a high or low uncertainty condition through exposure to fictitious news articles. These articles presented either ambiguous or clear opinions about the impact of immigration, followed by prompts encouraging participants to reflect on their feelings of certainty or uncertainty regarding immigration.

The results of the second study reinforced the findings of the first, showing that heightened uncertainty led to increased perceptions of realistic threats and a greater inclination to support anti-immigration parties. However, the manipulation of uncertainty did not significantly affect symbolic threats, beliefs in national superiority, or support for anti-immigration laws, suggesting that the direct impact of induced uncertainty might be more closely tied to concerns over material resources than to issues of national identity or cultural integrity.

“I was surprised to find that symbolic threat was not a significant mediator in most of my analyses,” Alves said. “When people felt uncertain about immigration, this uncertainty was linked much more consistently to economic, rather than cultural, concerns. In other words, people seemed to be particularly uncertain and concerned about the impact immigration may have on their personal finances and resources, as well as the group’s.”

“Though cultural concerns were still found in the samples, and these predicted more negative attitudes towards immigration, uncertainty did not increase these concerns. This may be due to the fact that my studies were conducted with Portuguese samples. Economic concerns are consistently the most important in the Portuguese’s minds, given the various economic crises Portugal has gone through recently.”

Together, these studies offer compelling evidence that uncertainty about immigration can engender perceptions of threat among host populations, which in turn fuel nationalist attitudes. But the study, like all research, includes some caveats.

“The most relevant caveat is related to the surprising finding mentioned above,” Alves explained. “Because the sample is composed only of Portuguese participants, it is still to be determined whether the fact that the only significant and consistent mediator is realistic threat is due to the national context of the participants or due to economic concerns being more prone to arise as a result of uncertainty.”

“Future studies should replicate these studies’ methodology with samples from different countries, namely from countries with a stronger history of immigration (where symbolic threat is more prevalent), to contribute to a better understanding of this process.”

Regarding her long-term goals for this line of research, Alves explained that “much can still be studied in relation to these topics. I have delved into more recent studies into the impact of economic conditions, integration policies and political leaders’ discourses on this process that starts with uncertainty and ends with nationalist attitudes, but more can still be done. Particularly, I’m interested in testing what can change uncertainty levels, and there are already a few interesting studies relating to the provision of factual information.”

The study, “The Terrible Unknown: How Uncertainty Fosters Nationalist and Anti-Immigration Attitudes,” was authored by Sara G. Alves, Isabel R. Pinto, and José M. Marques.