A new study explores why many Americans, particularly Republican voters, continue to support former President Donald Trump despite serious charges against him. Researchers found that white nationalism and political views play crucial roles in shaping public attitudes towards these charges. The study, published in The British Journal of Criminology, sheds light on the interplay between racial attitudes and political allegiances in contemporary America.
The attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, by Trump supporters resulted in significant consequences, including fatalities, injuries, extensive property damage, numerous arrests, and psychological trauma. The subsequent investigation by the United States House Select Committee aimed to determine the role of Trump in inciting this attack and whether criminal charges were warranted.
Despite the evidence against Trump, polls indicated that a significant portion of Republican voters continued to support him. The study aimed to understand why this segment of the population remained loyal to Trump despite the serious allegations.
To examine this, the researchers designed a split-ballot experiment to explore why many Americans continue to support former President Donald Trump despite the serious criminal charges against him. This experiment was conducted in May 2022, prior to any public hearings or announcements by the United States House Select Committee investigating the January 6th attack on the Capitol. The goal was to understand public reactions to hypothetical findings and recommendations by the Committee, thereby isolating the effects of political and racial attitudes on these reactions.
To conduct the experiment, the researchers surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,300 adults, aged 18 and over, using YouGov, a trusted and widely used online polling firm. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three experimental conditions:
No Evidence and No Charges: Participants in this condition were told to imagine that the Select Committee found no evidence that Trump actively aided the riot and recommended that he should not face any criminal charges.
Email Evidence and Charges: Participants in this condition were told to imagine that the Committee found email evidence showing Trump urged far-right groups to fight against the election outcome, leading the Committee to recommend that he be prosecuted for incitement of insurrection.
National Guard Evidence and Charges: Participants in this condition were told to imagine that the Committee found evidence that Trump deliberately blocked the U.S. National Guard from stopping the protesters, prompting the Committee to recommend that he face criminal charges.
After reading the scenario assigned to them, participants were asked to indicate their level of support for the Committee’s recommendation on a scale ranging from strongly oppose to strongly support. The survey also collected data on participants’ political views, racial attitudes (e.g., “We need to keep the United States a mostly white nation, which is what God meant it to be”), and various demographic factors to ensure comprehensive analysis and control for potential confounders.
The results demonstrated a clear interaction between participants’ racial and political views and their support for the Select Committee’s recommendations. White nationalists and individuals with conservative political views showed strong support for the Committee when it found no evidence against Trump and recommended no charges. However, their support drastically declined when the Committee recommended criminal charges based on incriminating evidence.
On the other hand, individuals who did not hold white nationalist views and those with liberal political views were overwhelmingly supportive of the Committee’s recommendations when charges were proposed but showed little support when no charges were recommended.
For example, 82% of white nationalists supported the Committee if it found no evidence against Trump, but only 35% to 39% supported the Committee when charges were recommended. In contrast, 76% to 80% of participants without white nationalist views supported the Committee when it recommended charges, but only 34% supported it when no charges were recommended.
The researchers found that right-wing political views mediated the relationship between white nationalism and support for the Committee. White nationalist attitudes were strongly associated with right-wing political views, which in turn influenced reactions to the Committee’s findings. This suggests that individuals with white nationalist beliefs are more likely to align themselves with conservative politics, and this political alignment significantly shapes their responses to the Committee’s recommendations.
“Our experiment suggests that for a non-trivial number of Americans, the desire to keep the United States a ‘white nation’ appears to be stronger than their desire to ensure that the country is led by a law-abiding president,” the researchers concluded.
The study controlled for race, sex, age, education, household income, religiosity, religious identification, and region of residence. But while the study offers important insights, it has limitations.
For instance, the manipulations in the experiment did not reflect the exact findings of the Select Committee, as the experiment was conducted before any public hearings. Future research could replicate this study using real-world data after the Committee’s findings were released to examine if the same patterns hold.
Future research could explore these dynamics in real-time and consider longitudinal studies to track changes in public attitudes over time. Investigating other factors, such as media influence and social networks, could also provide a more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms behind politically motivated reasoning and the role of white nationalism.
The study, “White Nationalism, Politically Motivated Reasoning and Americans’ Attitudes About Criminally Charging Donald Trump,” was authored by Melissa M. Sloan, Murat Haner, Justin T. Pickett, and Francis T. Cullen.
