New study on despair and voter turnout has troubling implications

A recent study published in the Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law suggests that feelings of hopelessness and despair have significant consequences that extend beyond individual well-being, influencing how people participate in politics and engage with their communities. The research indicates that both individual experiences of despair and higher levels of despair within a community are associated with decreased voter turnout in elections.

The researchers began by asking a simple question: Does the feeling of despair, which has been linked to rising deaths from drug overdose, alcohol poisoning, and suicide, also affect voter turnout? Previous studies have examined how economic hardship and social isolation contribute to what many call “deaths of despair,” but little was known about whether these feelings extend into the political realm. The study was designed to better understand the potential political effects of despair by looking at individual behavior and community trends across the United States.

To investigate this link, the researchers conducted two separate but related analyses. For the first part, they examined individual-level data from the 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey, a large national survey of approximately 19,000 adults in the United States. This survey included questions designed to measure mental health and gather information about voting history. Specifically, to measure despair, the survey asked participants to consider their mental health, including stress, depression, and emotional problems, and report the number of days in the past 30 days where their mental health was not good. Following previous research, the researchers defined individuals experiencing despair as those who reported that their mental health was not good for all 30 of the past 30 days.

To measure voter turnout, the survey asked participants about their voting in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections. For a portion of the survey respondents, the researchers also used official voter records from the National Voter File to validate whether individuals actually voted in the 2020 and 2022 elections. This combination of self-reported voting and validated voting records allowed for a more accurate assessment of voter participation.

In addition to measuring despair and voter turnout, the survey included standard questions about demographics like age, education, income, race, and marital status, as well as voter registration status and strength of party affiliation. These factors were included to account for other known influences on voter turnout. The researchers also measured depression using questions about feeling little interest or pleasure in doing things and feeling down, depressed, or hopeless over the past two weeks, to differentiate the effects of despair from general depression.

For the second part of the study, the researchers shifted their focus to the community level, analyzing data at the county level across the United States. They collected county-level voter turnout data for presidential elections from 1996 to 2012. To measure despair at the county level over time, they used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a large public health survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This survey also included the same mental health question used in the individual-level survey, and importantly, it recorded the county of residence for respondents.

Because the number of survey respondents in each county in any given year could be small, the researchers employed a statistical technique called dynamic multilevel regression and post-stratification to generate reliable estimates of despair levels for each county over time. This method combines individual survey responses with demographic information to predict the percentage of people in each county experiencing despair in different election periods. They estimated county-level despair for presidential election periods from 1996 to 2012. Alongside county-level despair and voter turnout, the researchers also gathered data on various county characteristics that could influence voter turnout, such as age, gender, race, education levels, income, unemployment rates, and poverty rates.

The findings from the individual-level analysis revealed a statistically significant negative association between despair and voter turnout. Individuals who reported experiencing despair were less likely to have voted in recent elections compared to those who did not report such intense hopelessness. This relationship held even after accounting for factors like age, education, income, and voter registration.

Interestingly, when the researchers considered depression alongside despair, they found that while depression was also linked to lower voter turnout, the effect of despair remained distinct, suggesting it is not simply a manifestation of general depression but has its own unique influence on political participation. In fact, they found that individuals experiencing despair, defined by reporting consistently bad mental health days, and those with occasional depressive symptoms, were both less likely to vote.

The county-level analysis also supported the study’s hypothesis. Counties with higher levels of despair tended to have lower voter turnout in presidential elections. This effect appeared to be more pronounced when considering despair levels from the election period prior to the election in question. In other words, higher despair in one election period seemed to predict lower voter turnout in the subsequent presidential election. This suggests that the influence of community despair on political participation may have a lasting effect over time.

Furthermore, the analysis indicated that counties with consistently higher average levels of despair over the years also experienced lower average voter turnout compared to counties with lower despair levels. Additional analysis suggested that the negative impact of despair on voter turnout might become stronger in communities where despair is already more prevalent, indicating a potentially compounding effect of hopelessness on civic engagement in heavily affected areas.

The researchers acknowledged certain limitations to their study. One important point is that the measurement of despair is still an evolving area of research, and the way despair was measured in this study, while based on established methods, is not a perfect or universally agreed-upon measure. Additionally, while the study found strong associations between despair and lower voter turnout, it is important to note that correlation does not equal causation.

While the study design and statistical methods strengthen the argument for a real effect, it does not definitively prove that despair directly causes lower voter turnout. There could be other unmeasured factors that contribute to both despair and decreased voting. For the county-level analysis, the researchers also pointed out that the data source they used for measuring despair did not cover all counties, potentially underrepresenting more rural areas in the earlier years of the study.

Despite these caveats, the implications of these findings are significant. If despair is leading people to withdraw from the political process, this could have lasting effects on democracy. When fewer people vote, especially in areas where economic and social hardship are common, the political system may become less responsive to the needs of those who are suffering the most.

The study, “Despair and Voter Turnout in the United States,” was authored by William Franko and Julianna Pacheco.