New research from a team of scientists in Argentina sheds light on the connection between temperature and mortality rates. The study, which analyzed a decade’s worth of data, reveals that both extreme heat and cold have a substantial impact on mortality rates, particularly among the elderly, resulting in significant economic damage. The findings have been published in Economics and Human Biology.
With climate change becoming an ever-growing concern, researchers have been delving into the various ways it can impact our lives. One of the critical areas of interest is the effect of temperature on human health. Previous studies from around the world have shown that extreme temperatures can pose risks to public health.
However, this new study focused on Argentina, a country with a diverse climate and unique demographics. The researchers aimed to understand how temperature fluctuations might affect the people of Argentina and whether there were any specific groups at higher risk.
“I was drawn to this topic due to the pressing issue of climate change and its impact on human health. Exploring the economic implications of mortality attributable to temperature extremes in Argentina is crucial for better policy decisions,” said study author Christian García-Witulski, a researcher affiliated with the Center for Sustainable Human Development – Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina.
To conduct this study, researchers gathered data from 2010 to 2019 in Argentina. They examined mortality rates across different age groups, causes of death, and regions to understand how temperature changes influenced deaths. They collected data on mortality rates, daily temperatures, and precipitation at the municipal level. This included information on when and where deaths occurred, the ages of the deceased, and the causes of death. They covered the entire population, taking into account factors like gender and location.
Using advanced statistical techniques, the researchers analyzed the collected data. They focused on the relationship between temperature and mortality rates. Their analysis accounted for other factors like precipitation and controlled for variables such as age group, month, and year.
One of the central findings of the study was the existence of a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. In simpler terms, extreme cold and extreme heat both contribute to an increase in mortality rates, with the most favorable conditions lying in between.
The researchers found that additional days with temperatures soaring above 90°F (32.2°C) led to a significant increase in overall mortality. These heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change, pose a severe threat to human lives. These extremely hot days were associated with a mortality rate increase of nearly 0.5 per 100,000 people.
The elderly population was most vulnerable to temperature extremes. Older individuals experienced more significant increases in mortality during both hot and cold spells. But there were no significant differences in the impact of temperature between genders. Both men and women were equally affected by extreme temperatures.
The study didn’t stop at quantifying the human cost of temperature extremes; it also delved into the economic implications. Using estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL), the researchers assessed the monetary costs associated with temperature-related mortality. When adding up the economic damage caused by both extreme cold and extreme heat, it totals to 0.75% of Argentina’s GDP in 2019.
“Our study highlights the substantial economic costs and health risks linked to extreme temperatures,” García-Witulski told PsyPost. “It’s crucial to recognize that the future impact on mortality and economic damages from changing temperature extremes will depend on whether effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions are implemented.”
The economic analysis revealed that extreme cold days caused annual economic damage equivalent to 0.64% of Argentina’s 2019 per capita GDP, while extreme heat damage corresponded to 0.11% of GDP. These numbers highlight the substantial financial impact of temperature-related mortality on the country’s economy.
“One of the most striking results from our study was the greater impact of cold temperatures on excess mortality and economic damage compared to warmer temperatures,” García-Witulski said. “We found that extreme cold days increase all-cause mortality and economic damages significantly.”
The study also looked at potential future scenarios. Under the more pessimistic climate scenario known as RCP8.5, which assumes higher greenhouse gas emissions and more significant temperature increases, the total damage caused by extreme temperatures is projected to increase even further. Specifically, it is expected to rise by an additional 1.45% of the 2019 GDP.
In contrast, if the future climate changes are milder, as assumed in scenario RCP4.5 (which involves lower greenhouse gas emissions and less severe temperature increases), the overall mortality rates would be lower at the national level. Consequently, the corresponding economic damages would decrease by 0.02% compared to the baseline scenario, indicating a slightly less adverse economic impact.
The researchers conducted various robustness checks to ensure the reliability of the findings. These checks consistently supported the main conclusions. But, like all research, the new study has some limitations.
“Major caveats include the sensitivity of our results to future climate projections and potential changes in population demographics,” García-Witulski explained. “Important questions that need further investigation involve the specific regional impacts of temperature extremes and the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies.”
“It’s essential to emphasize that our study highlights the interconnectedness of climate, health, and the economy. Addressing climate change is not just an environmental concern; it’s a critical economic and public health issue that requires immediate attention.”
The study, “Valuing mortality attributable to present and future temperature extremes in Argentina“, was authored by Christian García-Witulski, Mariano Javier Rabassa, Mariana Conte Grand, and Julie Rozenberg.