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New research from the University of New Hampshire paints a stark picture of shifting family structures in the United States, revealing that millions more women are without children than historical trends would predict. The analysis shows that in 2024, there were 5.7 million more childless women in their primary childbearing years than anticipated, a gap that has widened substantially in recent years. This profound change in childbearing patterns has contributed to a cumulative total of 11.8 million fewer births over the past 17 years than would have occurred if earlier fertility rates had been maintained.
The rationale for this investigation stems from a long-standing question among demographers and sociologists about the lasting effects of major societal disruptions on personal life decisions, specifically the choice to have children. The period beginning with the Great Recession in 2007 initiated an era of significant economic, social, and later, public health turbulence, which was intensified by the global pandemic.
Initially, many experts believed that the decline in births seen during these periods was a temporary delay, and that many people who postponed starting a family would eventually “catch up” once conditions improved. However, nearly two decades after this period of instability began, fertility rates in the United States have not rebounded to previous levels. Instead, they remain near historic lows, prompting researchers to explore whether these changes represent a temporary pause or a more permanent societal realignment regarding family and childbearing.
This study sought to quantify the extent of this shift and understand the complex web of factors contributing to it. Beyond major economic and health crises, the researchers acknowledge a landscape of evolving social norms and practical realities. These include expanded educational and career opportunities for women, which can alter timelines for starting a family.
At the same time, practical considerations like the soaring costs of housing, the substantial expense of raising children, and limited access to affordable child care and paid family leave present significant hurdles. Changing patterns in relationships, such as declining marriage rates and shifts in cohabitation, also play a part. While fertility rates have always been lower among unmarried women, the research aimed to see if childlessness was also increasing among married women, suggesting a broader cultural change in attitudes about having children.
To conduct the analysis, Kenneth Johnson, a professor of sociology and senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy, examined a robust set of national data. He utilized information from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, analyzing annual data from 2006 through 2024. This survey provides a detailed snapshot of the American population.
This information was supplemented with comprehensive birth and fertility data from the National Center for Health Statistics. By comparing fertility patterns from before the Great Recession to the years that followed, Johnson was able to calculate the “expected” number of women with children versus the actual numbers observed, revealing the size of the growing gap.
In 2024, the United States was home to 44.2 million women in the prime childbearing age range of 20 to 39. Of this group, 23.1 million, or 52 percent, had not given birth. The analysis showed that the number of childless women in this age bracket was 5.7 million higher than it would have been if the fertility patterns of 2006 had continued. This represents a rapid acceleration of the trend, with the surplus of childless women growing from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.7 million in 2022, and now to 5.7 million in 2024.
The study also illustrates what American families might have looked like if these trends had not occurred. Had pre-recession fertility patterns held steady, an estimated 4.4 million more women aged 20 to 39 would have had two or more children by 2024, and an additional 1.3 million women would have had one child. The cumulative effect of these individual decisions has resulted in a substantial national birth deficit.
Between 2007 and 2024, there were 11.8 million fewer births in the country than expected. This occurred despite an increase in the number of potential mothers; the population of women aged 20 to 39 grew by 10 percent between 2006 and 2024. Yet, the proportion of this larger group who had never had a child increased by 45 percent.
The data reveals that these changes are not uniform across all age groups. “Childless rates increased the most among women under 30, where fertility rate declines were also greatest,” Johnson explained. In contrast, childlessness increased only modestly among women in their 30s. Fertility rates for women in their early 30s saw minimal declines, while rates for women aged 35 to 49 actually increased slightly.
However, these small gains in childbearing among older women were not nearly enough to offset the massive drop in births among younger women. The research also confirmed that while lower marriage rates account for a significant portion of the rise in childlessness, the number of married women who have not had a child is also higher than historical trends would suggest.
Looking ahead, the study notes an important limitation: it captures a moment in time and cannot definitively predict the future. It remains possible that some of the women who have so far delayed having children may still go on to have them later in life. The central question is whether this is primarily a delay in childbearing or a permanent increase in the number of women who will forego having children altogether. The substantial and growing number of childless women, particularly as they move through their 30s, suggests that a significant portion may remain childless permanently.
The implications of this trend, which Johnson and other demographers refer to as the “demographic cliff,” are far-reaching. “The critical question is what kind of impact will this have on society,” Johnson stated. A sustained period of lower birth rates affects nearly every aspect of a nation’s infrastructure and economy. In the short term, it means a lower demand for schools, child-related businesses, and certain types of health care.
In the long term, it leads to a smaller workforce, which has profound consequences for economic productivity, innovation, and the tax base needed to support social programs for a growing elderly population. These ongoing shifts in family formation signal a fundamental change in the American demographic landscape, with consequences that will continue to unfold for decades to come.
The study, “Factors Contributing to the Demographic Cliff: More U.S. Women of Childbearing Age, but Fewer Have Given Birth,” was published September 3, 2025.
