Youths’ opinions of Donald Trump predicted shifts in their sociopolitical development over a one-year timespan, according to new research published in the journal Child Development. The findings suggest that the changing political climate in the United States has coincided with measurable changes in adolescents’ perceptions of marginalization and civic efficacy.
“The Trump era was a volatile and highly politically polarizing time for the country. Some experienced it as a very hostile and marginalizing time and were attacked by Trump’s rhetoric and policies, whereas others were satisfied with political decisions,” said study author Laura Wray-Lake (@WrayLake), an associate professor at the Luskin School of Public Affairs at UCLA.
“Very few studies have considered how adolescent development was affected by this time period – we were especially interested in knowing how the Trump era may have affected youth’s political development differently depending on their political orientation. For me, this paper also comes from a long-standing interest in how historical moments shape adolescents’ development in lasting ways.”
For their study, the researchers analyzed data collected for the Roots of Engaged Citizenship Project, a 5-year longitudinal study that surveyed youth from 22 schools in grades 4 through 12. The schools were located in the greater Los Angeles area, the suburbs of Minnesota, and rural West Virginia. Data from 1,433 students who completed surveys in 2017 and again in 2018 were included in the study.
The researchers found that 62.6% of youth either strongly disapproved, disapproved, or somewhat disapproved of Trump, while 23.7% either strongly approved, approved, or somewhat approved of him. Approximately 13% had no opinion.
Adolescents who disapproved of Trump exhibited increases in discrimination, race consciousness, deliberation skills, and awareness of inequality. In other words, Trump detractors became more likely to report being threatened or harassed, more likely to be interested in talking with people of other racial or ethnic backgrounds, more likely to think about multiple sides of an issue, and more likely to believe that some groups in the United States do not have equal chances to participate in government.
Adolescents who approved of Trump, in contrast, exhibited declines in awareness of inequality and race consciousness but increases in voting intentions. That is, Trump supporters became less likely to support equal rights for people of all racial and ethnic backgrounds and more likely to want to vote in national elections.
Youth who had strong opinions of Trump also reported positive changes in civic efficacy. Compared to adolescents with no opinion, both Trump detractors and Trump supporters became more likely to believe they could get other people to care about a problem, contact someone in a leadership, and make a positive impact in their community.
“The biggest take-away is that young Trump supporters and Trump detractors had different developmental experiences during the first year of the Trump era. In fact, these two groups showed change in opposite directions on several political beliefs,” Wray-Lake told PsyPost.
“Young Trump supporters decreased in awareness of inequality (i.e., understanding that society is not always equal and fair) and became less race conscious (i.e., concerned with discrimination and desiring racial equity) over time. In contrast, Trump detractors increased in awareness of inequality and race consciousness during this period. These findings may be reflective of growing political divides, especially around acknowledging racism and other inequalities.”
“Additionally, Trump detractors, especially Latinx youth, reported heightened experiences of discrimination over this one year period. This is likely due to the heightened climate of racism, hostility, and marginalization of this period. Trump supporters increased in voting intentions and both groups increased in civic efficacy (confidence in being engaged in society) compared to youth with no opinion of Trump. These findings suggest that volatile political times may enhance youth’s engagement with politics (at least in some forms) across the political spectrum.”
The sample included a large, racially and ethnically diverse sample of adolescents, and the researchers controlled for age, gender, financial security, caregiver education, generation status, and geographic location. But as with all research, the study includes some limitations.
“The main caveat is that this study does not have a causal design, so we cannot assume that Trump caused any of these changes. We can draw sound conclusions about changes that happened during this time frame, but can’t definitively attribute these changes to specific things that happened during this period of time,” Wray-Lake explained.
“Another caveat is that this was not a representative sample of adolescents, so we may not have fully captured the range of responses to this period of time among all adolescents. Finally, we only had data for the first year of the Trump era. These changes may have grown stronger or looked different if we had been able to follow youth over a longer period of time.”
The study, “Youth are watching: Adolescents’ sociopolitical development in the Trump era“, was authored by Danielle Dunn, Laura Wray-Lake, and Jason Anthony Plummer.